Baylor vs Iowa State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:49 AM EST

Baylor vs Iowa State on 2026-01-07

💰 Best Bet #1 [Iowa State / Spread / -4 at -110 / 58% / Iowa State shows strong home form and defensive efficiency against Baylor’s recent struggles, with line stable despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit high-tempo play and average over 70 points offensively in recent games, pushing totals higher amid neutral injury impacts.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Iowa State / Moneyline / -180 / 62% / Superior win probability driven by home advantage and better adjusted efficiency ratings in current season matchups.]

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Iowa State 65% / Baylor 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Iowa State 55% / Baylor 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Iowa State -3.5 and held steady at -4, with minimal movement indicating balanced action despite public favoritism toward the home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Iowa State spread / Consensus from efficiency metrics and home splits outweighs slight public overreaction, creating value against implied probabilities.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baylor | 38% |
| Win % for Iowa State | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Baylor -3.5 | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 143.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, 5.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Iowa State, aligning with sharp money indicators and current season metrics showing their defensive rebounding edge over Baylor’s offense. Following the public proves optimal here as EV supports the home favorite without reverse line movement signaling contrarian value. The game outlook favors a moderate-scoring affair, with combined offensive ratings suggesting a push toward the over but tempered by Iowa State’s havoc rate on defense.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Iowa State / Strong convergence of win probabilities and market data points to home team as the optimal side.]

Highlights unavailable.