Bellarmine vs Eastern Kentucky

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:34 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Eastern Kentucky Colonels / +1.5 / -110 / 52% / Simulation shows 51.7% cover probability exceeding implied odds, contrarian to 57% public on home despite alignment
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 154.5 at -110 / 52% / Avg simulated total 155 with 51% Over probability, money slightly favors Over at 54%
💰 Best Bet #3 Bellarmine Knights / Moneyline / -125 / 54% / 53.3% win probability aligns with public bets (55%) and money (60%)

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Bellarmine Knights | 53.3% |
| Win % for Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 46.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Bellarmine Knights | 48.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.0% / Under: 49.0% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 155.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-23.6, 24.9] |

🏀 Bellarmine Knights vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels

💸 Public Bets
Bellarmine 57% / Eastern Kentucky 43%

💰 Money Distribution
Bellarmine 62% / Eastern Kentucky 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -1.5; no significant RLM despite public on favorite

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1% on Eastern Kentucky +1.5 (sim cover 51.7% vs 52.4% breakeven); marginal edges align with low-volume game dynamics

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and money distribution align heavily on Bellarmine spread and ML, indicating market consensus without sharp resistance or RLM. Simulation supports close contest with home slight edge in wins but value on away spread cover and slight Over total based on pace modeling. Overall game projects average scoring near 155, favoring mild Over without extreme offense/defense mismatch.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Eastern Kentucky +1.5 — simulation probability exceeds breakeven despite public lean.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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