Boise State vs Duquesne

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-10 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-10 08:13 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Boise State / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 62% / Boise State’s superior adjusted efficiency (KenPom #52 vs Duquesne’s #128) and home-court dominance in recent games support covering the spread, with line movement indicating sharp action despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 142 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play above-average tempo (Boise 71.2 possessions, Duquesne 69.8), with combined offensive ratings suggesting a high-scoring affair, backed by recent trends of overs in 7 of Boise’s last 10 home games.

💰 Best Bet #3 Boise State / Moneyline / -350 / 73% / Strong win probability from simulation and metrics like +12.5 net rating differential, making the favorite a solid play even at juice.

🏀 Matchup: Boise State vs Duquesne on 2025-12-11

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Boise State 72% / Duquesne 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Boise State 68% / Duquesne 32%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Boise State -7.5; moved to -8.5 early due to sharp money on the favorite, holding steady despite 72% public tickets on Boise.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Boise State spread — Implied probability of 52.4% vs estimated true cover rate of 58% from efficiency metrics and simulation, with no major injuries shifting value.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Boise State | 72.50% |
| Win % for Duquesne | 27.50% |
| Spread Cover % for Boise State | 58.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.00% / Under: 48.00% |
| Average Total Points | 142.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.20, 21.80] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tyson Degenhart (Boise State) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 68% / Degenhart averages 17.2 PPG in home games this season with high usage (28%) against weaker defenses like Duquesne’s (allowing 74.5 PPG), supported by Boise’s efficient offense (112.3 ORtg).

Player Prop #2: Jimmy Clark III (Duquesne) / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 65% / Clark’s 15.8 PPG on 52% shooting in road games, facing Boise’s defense that yields 15.2 PPG to opposing guards; Duquesne’s pace favors volume scoring opportunities.

Player Prop #3: Chibuzo Colman Agbo (Boise State) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -105 / 70% / Agbo grabs 8.1 RPG at home, exploiting Duquesne’s poor defensive rebounding (68.2% rate), with matchup data showing Boise dominating the glass in 80% of recent wins.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Boise State, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow-public approach optimal on the spread and moneyline rather than fading. No significant injuries reported for key players, preserving matchup edges. Overall game outlook points to moderate scoring, with Boise’s balanced offense (top-60 eFG%) pushing toward the over against Duquesne’s mid-tier defense.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Boise State — Mathematical probability favors the home favorite across multiple metrics, including 72% simulated win rate and positive EV on core lines.

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