Bradley vs UC San Diego

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-25 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 03:43 PM EST

Bradley vs UC San Diego on 2025-11-25

💰 Best Bet #1 [Bradley / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 55% / Bradley’s defensive metrics and recent form suggest a tight game, with simulation showing strong cover probability despite UC San Diego’s slight edge in efficiency.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ adjusted defensive efficiencies and slower tempos indicate a lower-scoring affair, aligning with recent trends in their matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Bradley / Moneyline / +100 / 48% / Close matchup on a neutral court favors Bradley’s resilience, with value in the underdog pricing based on line movement and public overreaction to UC San Diego’s recent win.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Bradley | 48% |
| Win % for UC San Diego | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Bradley | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 13] |

Game Times
ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at UC San Diego -1.5, with slight movement toward Bradley after early public action on the favorite.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Bradley spread, driven by reverse line movement signals and simulation convergence favoring the underdog cover.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Quandre Bullock / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 65% / Bullock’s usage rate of 25% and UC San Diego’s weak perimeter defense (265th in opponent 3PT%) support exceeding his average of 15.2 PPG in recent games.

Player Prop #2: Tyler McGhie / Over Points / 16.5 at -110 / 62% / McGhie’s efficiency (55% eFG) against Bradley’s average interior defense projects over, backed by his 17.8 PPG in last five outings.

Player Prop #3: Duke Deen / Under Rebounds / 5.5 at -105 / 58% / Deen’s low rebounding rate (8% ORB%) faces UC San Diego’s strong defensive rebounding (top 100), likely keeping him below line based on matchup data.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward UC San Diego with 60% of bets, aligning with money distribution at 55%, indicating market consensus without significant sharp resistance. Following the public on the favorite holds merit, but mathematical edges emerge on Bradley’s side due to defensive trends and simulation outcomes. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, with both teams’ efficiencies suggesting under the total as defenses dominate.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on UC San Diego / Follow value with Bradley] — Bradley offers the best mathematical probability based on cover simulations and EV calculations.

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