NCAAB
Cal Poly vs 
Long Beach State
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 10:00 PM ET • 9:00 PM CT • 8:00 PM MT • 7:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 09:21 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Cal Poly Mustangs / -5.5 / -112 at FanDuel / 54% / Home team leverages recent scoring average of 78 PPG against LBSU’s vulnerable defense allowing 68+ recently, with sim projecting 51.5-point cover edge amid divergent market.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 160.5 at -105 / 56% / Combined recent game totals average 155 PPG, defensive matchups and money flow (60% under) favor low-scoring affair below line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Cal Poly Mustangs / Moneyline / -260 / 68% / Consensus model win probability aligns with heavy public/sharp money on home favorite despite road fatigue for LBSU.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cal Poly Mustangs | 68.2% |
| Win % for Long Beach St 49ers | 31.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Cal Poly Mustangs | 54.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.3% / Under: 53.7% |
| Average Total Points | 158.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.4, 24.7] |
🏀 Matchup: Cal Poly Mustangs vs Long Beach St 49ers
💸 Public Bets
[Cal Poly 47% / Long Beach St 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Cal Poly 42% / Long Beach St 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Moved from -6 to -5.5 toward underdog on low public bets volume.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Long Beach St +5.5; sharp money disparity (58% vs 53% bets) with sim near 50/50 cover signals value despite home favoritism.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jarred Hyder (Cal Poly) / Over Points / 15.5 at -115 / 72% / Averages 17.2 PPG last 5, exploits LBSU def allowing 75+ to guards; usage 28% with home off efficiency.
Player Prop #2: Chance Parsons (Long Beach St) / Over Points / 13.5 at -110 / 68% / 14.8 PPG recent vs similar def, high volume shooter (18 FGA/game) in road splits.
Player Prop #3: Aaden Porter (Cal Poly) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -112 / 70% / Grabs 8.4 RPG home, LBSU weak rebound def (38% opp reb rate), matchup edge.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Cal Poly ML (77%) aligning with money (82%), but spread shows divergence with sharp action on Long Beach St +5.5 (58% money). Fade public slight overexposure on home while following consensus ML; optimal fade spread public. Game projects low-scoring (avg 158 pts) due to Cal Poly def tightening home (82 allowed last 3) vs LBSU road offense.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Long Beach St +5.5 — sharp money and close sim margin provide strongest EV.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.