NCAAB

Cal Poly vs UC Davis

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:56 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [UC Davis / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 58% / UC Davis’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home/road splits against Big West opponents support covering, with recent form showing consistent margins over similar lines.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 139.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play at a moderate-to-high tempo with offensive rebounding edges, leading to totals exceeding this line in 60% of combined recent games despite defensive vulnerabilities.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [UC Davis / Moneyline / -300 / 75% / Strong win probability driven by depth and matchup advantages in turnover forcing and 3-point defense.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cal Poly | 24.8% |
| Win % for UC Davis | 75.2% |
| Spread Cover % for UC Davis -8.5 | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 139.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 28.4] |

🏀 Matchup: Cal Poly vs UC Davis on 2026-01-10
Game Times
ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[30% / 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[25% / 75%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -7.5 for UC Davis and moved to -8.5 with balanced action, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on UC Davis spread due to efficiency mismatch and home advantage; positive EV confirmed by simulation convergence and line movement against public fade.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors UC Davis, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. UC Davis’s defensive rebounding and transition efficiency create a clear edge over Cal Poly’s struggling offense. Overall game scoring projects moderately high, with both teams’ pace and recent totals pointing to an over-leaning contest.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with UC Davis] — strong alignment across metrics and market data supports the favorite’s probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.