Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-15 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-15 06:11 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Calgary Flames / Puck Line / +1.5 at -175 / 60% / Flames cover rate high in simulations due to Jets’ road inconsistencies and Calgary’s defensive resilience at home, aligning with recent form where Flames kept games close.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Both teams trending toward low-scoring affairs with Flames allowing 2 goals average lately and Jets facing strong goaltending, supported by 5.3 average goals in sims and defensive metrics like xGA per 60.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Winnipeg Jets / Moneyline / -135 / 58% / Jets hold edge in win probability from better overall form and key players like Scheifele driving offense against Flames’ depleted blue line.]

Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets on 2025-11-15

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Jets 62% / Flames 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Jets 58% / Flames 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Jets -130 ML and 6.0 total, shifting slightly to -135 and steady total amid balanced action, indicating no major sharp reversal despite public lean on Winnipeg.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Jets ML; implied odds match sim win prob closely, with positive EV from Jets’ xGF advantage and Flames’ injury impacts, though puck line +1.5 for Calgary offers value at 60% cover rate.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 42% |
| Win % for Winnipeg Jets | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Calgary Flames | 60% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Kyle Connor / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / -110 / 65% / Connor averages 4.2 SOG recently against weaker defenses like Calgary’s, with high usage on Jets’ top line boosting volume in favorable matchup.
Player Prop #2: Nazem Kadri / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 70% / Kadri’s home production hits 0.5+ in 75% of games this season, exploiting Jets’ PK vulnerabilities and centering skilled wingers like Farabee.
**Player Prop #3: Connor Hellebuyck / Under 28.5 Saves / +105 / 62% / Hellebuyck faces low-shot Flames offense (avg 25 shots allowed), with sim projecting under based on Calgary’s recent low xGF and his .925 SV% at home.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Jets, creating consensus without reverse line movement, making following Winnipeg optimal for the moneyline while the puck line value leans Calgary due to sim coverage. Flames’ recent shutout loss highlights defensive solidity but offensive struggles, while Jets’ mixed road results temper blowout potential. Overall scoring outlook points low with under favored, as both squads rank mid-pack in xGA and recent totals under 6 goals in 70% of combined games.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Jets / No clear edge] — Jets’ superior metrics and form provide the best mathematical probability.

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