Canisius vs Buffalo

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:44 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Buffalo / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Buffalo shows stronger early-season form per recent trends, covering in prior spots against weaker MAAC foes like Canisius, supported by line movement toward favorite despite public fade potential

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 154.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams rank mid-pack in tempo and efficiency (KenPom data), with Canisius poor defensive rebounding leading to lower possessions, recent games trending under

💰 Best Bet #3 Buffalo / Moneyline / -325 / 74% / Polymarket at 73% win prob aligns with market, Buffalo’s superior roster depth and home-court edge overpower Canisius’ struggles

Canisius vs Buffalo on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Canisius 28% / Buffalo 72%

💰 Money Distribution
Canisius 38% / Buffalo 62%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Buffalo -6.5, moved to -7.5 amid sharp action per X posts and trends sites, signaling pro money on Bulls despite heavy public there too.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Buffalo spread (implied 54% vs model 58% cover rate); Under offers +3.8% EV from pace mismatch.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Canisius | 26% |
| Win % for Buffalo | 74% |
| Spread Cover % for Canisius +7.5 | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Buffalo -7.5 | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 154.5: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 151.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, +2.3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Buffalo aligns with money distribution but shows divergence suggesting some sharp resistance at higher lines; math favors following Buffalo on spread/ML with slight edge from sim and form, while Under stands out on defensive metrics and low-tempo matchup. Overall game projects low-scoring affair given both teams’ subpar offensive efficiencies (Canisius #280+ KenPom adj O, Buffalo mid-tier D).

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Buffalo — sim convergence and market data confirm highest probability.

Highlights unavailable.