Canisius vs Fairfield

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-02 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-02 12:12 PM EST

Canisius vs Fairfield on 2026-01-02

💰 Best Bet #1 Fairfield / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Fairfield’s superior adjusted efficiency (110 off/102 def) and recent form (8-6 overall) give them an edge over Canisius (5-8), with home advantage not enough to cover the spread based on simulation margins.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams play at moderate tempos (68-70 possessions), with defensive efficiencies suggesting low output; recent games average under 135 combined points, favoring a controlled, low-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Fairfield / Moneyline / -160 / 60% / Fairfield’s better record and matchup advantages in offensive rebounding and turnover forcing align with a 57.5% win probability from simulations, offering value against the implied odds.

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Fairfield 65% / Canisius 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Fairfield 72% / Canisius 28%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Fairfield -2.5 and moved to -3.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating sharp money on Fairfield and potential resistance on the spread.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Under 138.5; simulations show 51.3% under probability vs. implied 52.4%, boosted by defensive metrics and low explosive play rates for both teams in current season matchups.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Canisius | 42.5% |
| Win % for Fairfield | 57.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Canisius (+3.5) | 47.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 137.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.8, 7.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Caiden Caterson (Fairfield) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 68% / Caterson averages 15.2 PPG in last 5 games with high usage (28%) against similar defenses; Canisius allows 72 PPG to guards, supporting over based on eFG% matchups.

Player Prop #2: Noah Bible (Canisius) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 65% / Bible’s 5.8 RPG recently drops vs. strong rebounding teams like Fairfield (top-150 def reb %); simulations project low possessions for Canisius interior.

Player Prop #3: Jalen Leach (Fairfield) / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 70% / Leach dishes 4.1 APG with Fairfield’s pace uptick; Canisius turnover-forcing def (18%) but Leach excels in PnR (1.2 APG/30 min), favoring over in projected 70-possession game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Fairfield, but money distribution shows sharper action on them too, creating alignment rather than a clear fade opportunity—follow the consensus as metrics confirm the edge without overvaluation. Simulations and KenPom data (Fairfield #210, Canisius #285) support a Fairfield lean, with no major injuries altering lineups. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with both offenses struggling (under 1.00 points/possession vs. opponents) and defenses holding firm in MAAC play.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Fairfield — simulations and line movement confirm the highest probability on the road favorite covering and winning outright.

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