Charlotte FC vs New York City FC

League: MLS | Date: 2025-10-28 06:45 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-28 05:04 PM EDT

Charlotte FC vs New York City FC on 2025-10-28

Game Times
ET: 6:45 PM
CT: 5:45 PM
MT: 4:45 PM
PT: 3:45 PM
AKT: 2:45 PM
HST: 12:45 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Charlotte FC / Win / +175 / 44% / Charlotte holds strong home advantage in playoffs, with simulation showing 44.2% win probability exceeding implied odds; recent form includes clean sheets and xG edge of 1.6 at home.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Draw / Tie / +255 / 27% / Even matchup with both teams showing defensive solidity, draw likelihood at 27.3% aligns closely with market but offers value in low-scoring playoff trends.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New York City FC / Win / +140 / 29% / NYC’s away xG of 1.3 and pressing intensity provide upset potential at 28.5%, though market overprices them slightly; value if injuries hit Charlotte’s attack.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte FC | 44.2% |
| Win % for New York City FC | 28.5% |
| Draw % | 27.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte FC (-0.5) | 44.2% |
| Over 2.5 Probability | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 Probability | 48.2% |
| Average Total Goals | 2.90 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

(10,000 Monte Carlo runs using Poisson goals from xG lambdas: Charlotte 1.6 (home-adjusted, 14 goals last 5), NYC 1.3 (away, BTTS in 7/10); incorporates possession, shots %, defensive errors, and playoff rest. Upset frequency 28.5%; EV edges from prob vs market.)

💸 Public Bets
[38% Charlotte FC / 62% New York City FC]

💰 Money Distribution
[52% Charlotte FC / 48% New York City FC]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Charlotte +160 / NYC +150 / Draw +250; moved to current Charlotte +175 / NYC +140 / Draw +255 with slight steam toward NYC despite money favoring Charlotte, indicating possible sharp action on home underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.8% on Charlotte FC moneyline; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds by 7.8% for home win, supported by home xG dominance and NYC’s away draw tendencies in playoffs.]

Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Wilfried Zaha / Over 0.5 Shots on Target / 0.5 at -120 / 72% / Zaha averages 1.8 SOT in home games with high usage (25% shots share); Charlotte’s possession edge (55%) boosts chances against NYC’s mid-block defense allowing 4.2 SOT conceded away.
– Player Prop #2: Kristijan Kahlina / Over 3.5 Saves / 3.5 at -110 / 68% / Kahlina faces 4.9 shots on target per game; NYC generates 1.3 xG away with 5.2 SOT attempts, aligning with his 4.89 PG average in simulations favoring moderate shot volume.
– Player Prop #3: Hannes Wolf / Over 0.5 Shots on Target / 0.5 at +150 / 55% / Wolf’s 2.1 SOT per 90 in away matches exploits Charlotte’s defensive errors (1.2 per game); NYC’s counter-attacks yield value on underdog side with 62% public fade opportunity.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors New York City FC at 62%, but money distribution leans toward Charlotte at 52%, suggesting sharp resistance and value on the home underdog amid divergent alignment. Reverse line movement toward NYC despite public bets indicates professional action, yet Charlotte’s home advantage and superior xG metrics (1.6 vs. 1.3) support fading the public. Overall game outlook points to a low-to-moderate scoring affair around 2.9 goals, with under 2.5 slightly edged due to playoff defensive focus and recent clean sheets.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Charlotte FC — mathematical probabilities and EV align with home win at +175, bolstered by simulation edges and injury impacts like Zaha’s potential availability post-red card.

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