Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-21 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-21 06:06 PM EST

Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers on 2026-01-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [Charlotte Hornets / Spread / +3.5 at -110 / 55% / Hornets show resilience at home despite recent road trip, while Cavaliers’ backcourt injuries limit offensive punch, creating value on the underdog cover based on current season ATS trends.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 231.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank below league average in pace and efficiency this season, with key absences on Cleveland’s side slowing the game; recent matchups suggest defensive focus leads to totals under 220.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -150 / 55% / Cavaliers hold a slight edge in win probability from simulation, supported by depth despite injuries, making the favorite a solid play against a streaky Hornets squad.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 45% |
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte Hornets | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 210 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 15] |

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Cavaliers -4.5 but has ticked toward Hornets +3.5 amid injury news on Cleveland’s guards, indicating some sharp action on the underdog despite public leaning favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Hornets spread; injuries to Garland and Merrill create exploitable inefficiency in Cavs’ offense, aligning with reverse line movement and simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: LaMelo Ball / Over Points / 28.5 at -115 / 60% / Ball averages 27.8 PPG in home games this season with high usage (32%) against weakened defenses; Cavaliers’ missing perimeter defenders boost his scoring efficiency based on recent 30+ outings.

Player Prop #2: Evan Mobley / Under Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 55% / Mobley’s rebound rate drops to 18% without Garland’s outlet passing, and Hornets’ frontcourt limits second-chance opportunities; he’s hit under in 7 of last 10 road games.

Player Prop #3: Brandon Miller / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 58% / Miller’s playmaking rises in transition (3.2 APG last 5), exploiting Cavs’ thin backcourt; matchup favors his 25% assist rate when Ball dominates the ball.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Cavaliers due to their overall record, but divergent money distribution and line movement suggest sharp resistance amid Cleveland’s injury woes, making a fade optimal for value. Math supports following the underdog spread as EV-positive from simulation and contextual edges. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with both teams’ defensive ratings (Hornets 112.5, Cavs 110.8 allowed per 100 possessions) and absences projecting a grind-it-out affair under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Cleveland Cavaliers / No clear edge] — Hornets offer the best mathematical probability as underdogs.

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