Charlotte Hornets vs Utah Jazz

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-02 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:22 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Charlotte Hornets / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation indicates 55.4% cover probability, bolstered by Hornets’ superior offensive rating and home-court edge against a struggling Jazz defense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 238.5 at -110 / 52% / Projected average of 236.8 points from simulations, aligned with both teams’ recent low-pace games and defensive rebounding trends favoring fewer second-chance opportunities.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Charlotte Hornets / Moneyline / -120 / 62% / 62.1% win probability in Monte Carlo runs, driven by key player availability and Utah’s poor road efficiency metrics.]

🏀 Matchup: Charlotte Hornets vs Utah Jazz on 2025-11-02

Game Times

• ET: 6:00 PM
• CT: 5:00 PM
• MT: 4:00 PM
• PT: 3:00 PM
• AKT: 2:00 PM
• HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[68% Charlotte Hornets / 32% Utah Jazz]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% Charlotte Hornets / 45% Utah Jazz]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened around -3.5 for the Hornets but has moved to -1.5 across major books like DraftKings and FanDuel, indicating potential sharp action on Utah despite public favoritism toward Charlotte. The total has held steady at 238.5, with minimal variance from 238 to 239 early in the day.

💸 Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 62.1% |
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 37.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte Hornets | 55.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 236.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 16.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: LaMelo Ball / Over 28.5 Points + Assists / -110 / 68% / Ball’s usage rate exceeds 32% in home games, and Utah’s perimeter defense ranks 25th in opponent assists allowed; he’s cleared this in 7 of last 10 outings with Charlotte’s pace up.
• Player Prop #2: Walker Kessler / Under 8.5 Rebounds / -115 / 65% / Hornets lead the league in defensive rebounding percentage (72.4%), limiting second-chance opportunities; Kessler averages just 7.2 boards against top rebounding teams.
• Player Prop #3: Miles Bridges / Over 20.5 Points / -105 / 62% / With no major frontcourt injuries, Bridges’ scoring volume rises to 22.1 PPG at home; Jazz allow 24.3 points per game to small forwards, supporting over based on efficiency metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Hornets at 68%, but money distribution shows balance with 45% on Utah, suggesting sharp interest in the underdog amid line movement from -3.5 to -1.5. This divergence supports following the public on Charlotte while eyeing value on the spread, as simulations confirm a positive edge without overreacting to Utah’s home scoring trends. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, with both teams’ defensive ratings (Hornets 112.4, Jazz 115.1) and slower paces projecting below the 238.5 total despite occasional high-output bursts.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public on Charlotte Hornets -1.5] — Mathematical probability aligns with 55.4% cover rate from simulations and home advantage outweighing Utah’s injury concerns.

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