Charlotte vs Tulsa

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-14 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 11:15 AM EST

Charlotte vs Tulsa on 2026-01-14

💰 Best Bet #1 [Charlotte / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Charlotte’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks higher in the conference, supporting cover against Tulsa’s middling offense, bolstered by home-court advantage.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit low tempos and strong rebounding rates, leading to fewer possessions and controlled scoring in recent matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Charlotte / Moneyline / -190 / 65% / Charlotte’s superior overall efficiency and recent winning streak provide a clear edge over Tulsa’s road struggles.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Charlotte | 65.2% |
| Win % for Tulsa | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Charlotte | 52.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, 20.3] |

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line moved from -3.5 to -4.5 with increased action on Charlotte, indicating steady support for the favorite despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Charlotte spread; implied probability undervalues Charlotte’s home efficiency edge per current season metrics.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Lucious Brown / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 70% / Brown’s 18.2 PPG average in conference play and high usage rate (28%) exploit Tulsa’s weak perimeter defense allowing 12.5 3s per game.]

Player Prop #2: [Matt Grooms / Under Points / 12.5 at -110 / 65% / Grooms’ recent form shows 10.8 PPG on the road, limited by Charlotte’s top-100 defensive rebounding that restricts second-chance opportunities.]

Player Prop #3: [Nik Graves / Over Assists / 4.5 at -105 / 68% / Graves averages 5.1 APG at home with Charlotte’s efficient half-court offense creating 15+ assist opportunities against Tulsa’s press.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Charlotte, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making following the favorite the optimal play backed by efficiency metrics and home advantage. Tulsa’s road offense struggles with turnover rates above 18%, reducing upset potential. Overall, expect a moderate-scoring affair as both defenses rank well in opponent eFG%, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Charlotte / No clear edge] — Charlotte holds the best mathematical probability based on form and matchup data.

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