Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-04 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-04 09:52 AM EST

🏈 Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions on 2026-01-04

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Bears 65% / Lions 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Bears 55% / Lions 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Bears -2 and has moved to -2.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp support for Chicago in this divisional finale.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Bears spread; simulation and injury edges favor home motivation over Detroit’s absences, creating value against the line.

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Bears / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Bears hold divisional edge with key Lions out, covering in 52% of sims amid home motivation for seeding.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 52% / Both defenses strong late-season, avg total 43.2 in sims with Lions injuries limiting offense.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Bears / Moneyline / -130 / 55% / 55% win probability in sims, backed by recent form and Detroit’s rest-heavy approach.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 55% |
| Win % for Detroit Lions | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 43.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.5, +7.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: DJ Moore / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 / -115 / 70% / Moore averages 72 yards recently against weakened Lions secondary due to injuries, with high target share in favorable matchup.
Player Prop #2: Jahmyr Gibbs / Under Rushing Yards / 55.5 / -110 / 65% / Lions OL banged up (Sewell out), Bears run D allows low YPC; Gibbs under in 4 of last 5 vs top defenses.
Player Prop #3: Caleb Williams / Over Passing Yards / 225.5 / -112 / 68% / Bears air raid thrives at home, Lions pass rush depleted; Williams over in 60% of sims with clean pocket.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment on the Bears aligns with sharp money and simulation edges, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Detroit’s injuries to key linemen and skill players tilt the matchup toward Chicago’s balanced attack. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with defensive metrics and rest factors suppressing totals below the line.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Bears — 55% win probability and positive EV on spread and moneyline.

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