Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-10 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 05:57 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bears / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 58% / Bears’ home-field advantage and recent form give them a strong chance to keep it close against a Packers team struggling on the road ATS in the current season.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season, with cold weather at Soldier Field likely suppressing scoring based on historical January trends.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bears / Moneyline / +110 / 52% / Simulation edges Bears slightly due to injury impacts on Packers’ key defenders and superior red-zone efficiency in recent matchups.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 52% |
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears (+1.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 44.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6, +8] |

🏈 Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Chicago Bears 75% / Green Bay Packers 25%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Chicago Bears 60% / Green Bay Packers 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Packers -1.5 but moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on Bears, indicating sharp money on Green Bay; total steady at 44.5 with slight under lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.5% on Bears spread / Positive EV from sim probabilities exceeding implied odds (52% win vs. 46.7% implied at +114), supported by home-field and Packers’ road ATS woes (3-7 last 10 away).]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Caleb Williams / Over 225.5 Passing Yards / 225.5 at -110 / 65% / Williams has exceeded this line in 8 of his last 10 starts this season, facing a Packers secondary allowing 240+ yards per game to QBs without their top corner active.
Player Prop #2: DJ Moore / Over 5.5 Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 70% / Moore leads Bears in targets (8.2 per game average), and Packers’ zone coverage has yielded 6+ catches to top WRs in 70% of road games this season.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Love / Under 1.5 Passing TDs / 1.5 at -105 / 60% / Love has thrown under 1.5 TDs in 6 of 9 cold-weather games this season, with Bears’ pass rush (top-5 sacks) pressuring him into checkdowns.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bears, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp action on Green Bay amid the line movement, creating value on the underdog side despite alignment concerns. Mathematical edges point to fading the overreaction to Bears’ hype, with EV strongest on the spread due to simulation convergence and contextual factors like injuries. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, as both offenses struggle in playoff atmospheres (combined 42 points average in recent sims) against stout defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Bears — simulation and home metrics outweigh sharp signals for the highest probability outcome.

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