Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-10 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-08 06:04 PM EST

🏈 Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers on 2026-01-10

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bears / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 58% / Bears show strong home-field edge in divisional playoffs, covering 58% in simulations with recent form and Packers’ injury concerns tilting the line value.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season, with cold weather and injuries to key offensive pieces favoring a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bears / Moneyline / +105 / 52% / Simulations give Bears a slight edge at home against a Packers team hampered by road fatigue and secondary injuries, offering value as underdogs.]

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[40% Bears / 60% Packers]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% Bears / 55% Packers]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Packers -1 and held steady at -1.5 despite 60% public on Green Bay, indicating some sharp resistance but no major reverse movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Bears +1.5] — Simulations and defensive metrics converge with slight RLM hints, creating positive EV against public favoritism toward the Packers.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: DJ Moore / Over Receptions / 6.5 at -115 / 65% / Moore’s 75% catch rate in recent home games against NFC North foes, plus Packers’ banged-up secondary, supports clearing this line based on high target share (28%) and Bears’ pass-heavy script.

Player Prop #2: Jordan Love / Under Passing Yards / 235.5 at -110 / 62% / Love faces Bears’ top-ranked pass rush (led by Montez Sweat, 12 sacks this season), with cold weather and road pressure leading to under hits in 70% of similar matchups; simulations project 220 yards average.

Player Prop #3: Cole Kmet / Over Receiving Yards / 45.5 at -105 / 60% / Kmet’s red-zone usage spikes (4 TDs in last 5) against Packers’ weak TE coverage, with Bears’ offense averaging 48 TE yards per game; injury to Packers’ LBs boosts this prop’s hit rate.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Packers due to divisional history and Jordan Love’s primetime appeal, but sharp money shows divergence with steady line action favoring Bears’ home defense. Following the contrarian side aligns with math here, as Bears’ 11-6 record and simulations indicate value in fading the 60% public. Overall scoring outlook points low, with both teams’ defenses allowing under 20 PPG lately amid injuries to skill players.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Packers] — Mathematical probability favors Bears covering as home underdogs in this tight divisional clash.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 52% |
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears (+1.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 44.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6, +8] |

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