Chicago Bears vs New York Giants

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-09 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:02 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Chicago Bears / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Bears’ strong run game averaging 186 yards per game since Week 5 and Giants’ depleted offensive line due to injuries like Schmitz out favor a comfortable cover at home.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank in bottom half for scoring efficiency this season, with Giants allowing just 20.5 points per game recently and Bears’ defense holding opponents under 21 points in four of last six.

💰 Best Bet #3 Chicago Bears / Moneyline / -220 / 65% / Bears’ 5-3 record and momentum against 2-7 Giants, who have lost seven straight, provide solid value despite the juice, supported by home-field edge.

Chicago Bears vs New York Giants on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Bears 72% / Giants 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Bears 65% / Giants 35%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at Bears -4.5 across major books, with minimal shift from open despite public leaning Bears, indicating no sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Bears spread; implied probability of 52.4% vs. estimated true cover rate of 55% based on EPA differentials and injury impacts.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 68% |
| Win % for New York Giants | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 47 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: DJ Moore / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 / -115 / 70% / Moore’s 75% catch rate and 85 yards per game average against weak Giants secondary, missing Adebo, align with over hitting in 7 of 8 games.

Player Prop #2: D’Andre Swift / Over Rushing Yards / 68.5 / -110 / 65% / Swift’s 4.8 yards per carry and Giants’ run defense allowing 140 yards recently support over, especially with Bears’ ground-heavy approach.

Player Prop #3: Malik Nabers / Under Receiving Yards / 55.5 / -105 / 60% / Nabers’ toe issue limits explosiveness, with under hitting in 6 of last 8 amid Giants’ QB struggles and Bears’ top-ranked pass defense.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bears, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making following the public optimal here without contrarian value. Giants’ extensive injuries, including key linemen and defenders out, tilt the matchup decisively. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with Bears’ efficient offense tempered by Giants’ improving defense leading to under lean.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Bears — mathematical probability favors their win and cover based on form, injuries, and simulation edges.

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