NFL
Chicago Bears vs 
Pittsburgh Steelers
League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-23 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 07:42 AM EST
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bears / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 58% / Bears’ strong home form and Steelers’ potential QB uncertainty provide an edge, with recent EPA metrics favoring Chicago’s defense against Pittsburgh’s run game.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 56% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in yards allowed per game this season, compounded by Bears’ linebacker injuries limiting explosive plays and cold Chicago weather suppressing scoring.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bears / Moneyline / -162 / 62% / Caleb Williams’ efficiency (7.2 YPA) and home-field advantage outweigh Steelers’ road struggles, with Bears winning 70% of home games in 2025.]
🏈 Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers on 2025-11-23
Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM
💸 Public Bets
[Chicago Bears 68% / Pittsburgh Steelers 32%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Chicago Bears 59% / Pittsburgh Steelers 41%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Bears -3 but ticked to -2.5 amid sharp money on Pittsburgh despite public favoritism toward Chicago, indicating professional respect for Steelers’ defensive metrics.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.8% on Bears spread / Public leans Bears but money split suggests value in home side given Bears’ 6-4 ATS record and Steelers’ 3-7 road ATS in similar spots this season.]
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 59% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 41% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 43.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-6.1, +3.8] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: D’Andre Swift / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 at -115 / 65% / Swift averages 78 yards per game on 18 carries with Bears’ top-5 run blocking; Steelers allow 4.8 YPC to RBs this season, boosted by Chicago’s home tempo.
Player Prop #2: Caleb Williams / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 62% / Williams has topped 250 yards in 7 of 10 starts, exploiting Pittsburgh’s secondary that ranks 22nd in passer rating allowed; Bears’ O-line protects well against pressure.
Player Prop #3: Pat Freiermuth / Over Receiving Yards / 42.5 at -112 / 58% / Freiermuth’s 68% catch rate shines vs. Bears’ depleted LB corps (missing Edwards, Edmunds); he’s averaged 48 yards in matchups with similar defensive weaknesses this year.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Bears, aligning with sharp money distribution and mathematical edges from EPA and success rate data, making following Chicago optimal rather than fading. The Steelers’ potential Rodgers absence tilts value toward the home side without overreacting to hype. Overall scoring outlook points low, as both defenses limit explosive plays (Bears 28% success rate allowed, Steelers 32%), with injuries further capping output in a projected grind-it-out affair.
🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Chicago Bears / Consensus metrics and home advantage confirm the Bears as the higher-probability winner at current lines.]
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