NHL

Chicago Blackhawks vs Anaheim Ducks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-30 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 10:30 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Blackhawks / Spread / +1.5 at -170 / 72% / Simulation shows 72.1% cover rate; home ATS record 19-5 vs spread in similar spots, sharp money 60% on Hawks despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 54% / Data projects average 6.1 goals with Under edge at 52%, but NHL historical performance flips to Over value amid Ducks’ 3.6 GPG offense and goalie uncertainty.

💰 Best Bet #3 Ducks / Moneyline / -125 / 52% / Slight sim edge (51.8% win probability) aligns with market consensus, supported by recent form and Hawks’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 46.2% |
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 51.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | 72.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.8, +2.4] |

🏒 Matchup: Chicago Blackhawks vs Anaheim Ducks on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Anaheim Ducks 55% / Chicago Blackhawks 45%

💰 Money Distribution
Anaheim Ducks 40% / Chicago Blackhawks 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Ducks ML opened -130, moved to -125 despite public lean; heavy volume ($500k+) on Blackhawks +1.5 signals sharp action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Blackhawks +1.5 (72% sim cover vs. -170 implied 63%); Ducks win probable but game stays close per home ATS trends and goalie uncertainty.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Shots on Goal Over / 3.5 at -115 / 75% / Hawks top forward averages 3.8 SOG recently, elevated usage at home vs Ducks’ middling shot suppression.
Player Prop #2: Cutter Gauthier / Points Over / 0.5 at -130 / 68% / Leads NHL with 11 goals, Ducks offense clicking at 3.6 GPG; Hawks allow 2.9 GA/G to forwards.
Player Prop #3: Leo Carlsson / Assists Over / 0.5 at +120 / 62% / 20 points early season (T-4th NHL), high-danger involvement exploits Chicago’s PK weaknesses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public favors Ducks at 55% but money splits 60% to Blackhawks, indicating sharp divergence on the spread with RLM softening Ducks’ favoritism. Fade public aligns with sim cover rates and home trends; game projects moderate scoring (avg 6.1 goals) but flipped Over holds edge due to Ducks’ attack vs potential goalie volatility (Dostal sidelined). EV strongest on Hawks +1.5 amid defensive matchup balance.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Blackhawks +1.5 — Mathematical probability favors close contest with sharp backing.

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