Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-26 07:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 05:06 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Blackhawks / Bet Type = Spread +1.5 / -195 / 78% / Simulation shows 78.5% cover rate with strong defensive metrics for Chicago at home; line movement favors underdog despite public lean to Kings, creating +4% EV edge.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Bet Type = Total 6.5 / -130 / 68% / Average simulated goals at 5.62 with both teams’ recent low-scoring trends (Kings allow 2.8 GA/game, Blackhawks score 3.1); injuries limit offenses, favoring under by 15% over implied odds.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Kings / Bet Type = Moneyline / -160 / 60% / 57.7% win probability aligns with sharp money flow and Kings’ superior xGF (2.45/60 min); public alignment boosts confidence without overvaluation.]

🏒 Matchup: Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings on 2025-10-26

Game Times

• ET: 7:00 PM
• CT: 6:00 PM
• MT: 5:00 PM
• PT: 4:00 PM
• AKT: 3:00 PM
• HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 42.3% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Kings | 57.7% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | 78.5% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Los Angeles Kings -1.5 | 21.5% |
| Over 5.5 Probability | 48.2% |
| Under 5.5 Probability | 51.8% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.62 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (LA – CHI) | [-1.2, 3.8] |

💸 Public Bets

Kings 68% / Blackhawks 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Kings 72% / Blackhawks 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Kings -150 ML and 6 total; moved to -162 ML and 6.5 total on Kings side with steady handle despite public bets, indicating sharp support for favorite without major RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Blackhawks +1.5 (78.5% sim cover vs. -195 implied 66.1%); totals show +2.8% EV on Under 6.5 given low avg goals and goalie edges (Kuemper .921 SV%).

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 / -120 / 72% / Bedard averages 4.2 SOG/game with high usage (22% TOI); Blackhawks’ home pace boosts volume against Kings’ mid-pack shot suppression (28.4 SA/60).
• Player Prop #2: Anze Kopitar / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 / -115 / 68% / Kopitar’s 1.2 pts/game on PP1 (22% success rate) exploits Chicago’s weak PK (78.3%); recent form includes points in 6/8 games vs. similar defenses.
• Player Prop #3: Darcy Kuemper / Under 26.5 Saves / 26.5 / -110 / 70% / Kings’ control limits shots (26.2 SA/60 allowed to opponents); sim projects 24.8 saves needed with Chicago’s low shot output (27.1/game) and no key scorers elevated by injuries.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public and money percentages align heavily on the Kings, supported by their xGF edge and road form, making a follow-public approach optimal without contrarian value. Sharp action via line movement reinforces the favorite, though Chicago’s home rest (2 days off) and simulation cover rate create spread value. Overall scoring outlook leans low with both teams’ defensive metrics (combined 5.4 GA/90) and goalie stability, favoring unders amid limited offensive firepower from injuries like Blackhawks’ Bertuzzi out.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on Los Angeles Kings — 57.7% win probability and aligned metrics provide the strongest mathematical edge for the moneyline.

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