NHL

Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-28 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 10:01 AM EST

Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins on 2025-12-28

💰 Best Bet #1 Chicago Blackhawks / Spread / +1.5 at -170 / 78% / Blackhawks show strong cover probability in simulations due to Penguins’ recent defensive lapses and home-ice edge, with public heavy on favorite creating value.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 52% / Matchup metrics indicate moderate scoring potential from both offenses, but flipped recommendation highlights contrarian edge against under-trending public action.

💰 Best Bet #3 Pittsburgh Penguins / Moneyline / -150 / 51% / Penguins hold slight edge in win probability via superior xGF and road form, aligning with sharp money despite public favoritism.

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Chicago Blackhawks 40% / Pittsburgh Penguins 60%

💰 Money Distribution
Chicago Blackhawks 30% / Pittsburgh Penguins 70%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Penguins -140 ML and moved to -150 with heavy money on Pittsburgh, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite public percentages.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Blackhawks +1.5 spread; simulations and RLM confirm value in underdog cover, as Penguins’ injury-hit defense reduces blowout likelihood.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 42.5% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 50.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 | 78.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 72% / Bedard’s high usage (25% on-ice xGF share) and Penguins’ weak PK (78% efficiency) support multi-point potential in home matchup.
Player Prop #2: Sidney Crosby / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at -110 / 68% / Crosby’s playmaking (0.6 assists/game avg) exploits Blackhawks’ turnover-prone defense (12% rate), confirmed active with no injury flags.
Player Prop #3: Jason Dickinson / Under 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -130 / 75% / Dickinson’s low-volume role (1.8 SOG/game) faces Penguins’ stout high-danger defense (85% save rate), limiting opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Penguins but diverges from money distribution, suggesting sharp resistance and value in fading the favorite on spread. Follow math on underdog cover while aligning with consensus on ML favorite. Game outlook points to moderate scoring (avg 5.5 goals) driven by Penguins’ offense against Blackhawks’ leaky GA (3.0/game).

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pittsburgh Penguins — Blackhawks +1.5 offers the best mathematical probability based on sim edges and injury impacts.

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