Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-22 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 05:47 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bulls / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 60% / Bulls’ strong home form and Wizards’ poor road record (1-7 away) support covering, with simulation showing 55% cover rate despite injuries on both sides.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank bottom-10 in pace and defensive efficiency this season, recent games averaging 215 points combined, favoring a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bulls / Moneyline / -750 / 75% / Dominant win probability from metrics, including 8-7 record vs. Wizards’ 1-14 start, aligning with sharp money.]

Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Chicago Bulls 72% / Washington Wizards 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Chicago Bulls 85% / Washington Wizards 15%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -11.5 and moved to -12.5 with heavy action on Bulls, indicating sharp support despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Bulls spread] — Implied probability of 52.4% vs. estimated true probability of 55.6% from current season metrics and simulation, creating value against Wizards’ defensive woes.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 75.00% |
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 25.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bulls | 55.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.00% / Under: 52.00% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 220.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.20, 30.80] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Josh Giddey / Over Assists / 8.5 at -115 / 70% / Giddey’s 9.7 APG this season surges without Ayo Dosunmu (questionable), Wizards allow 28.5 assists to PGs, hitting over in 8/10 recent starts.

Player Prop #2: Nikola Vucevic / Over Rebounds / 9.5 at -110 / 65% / Vucevic averages 9.9 RPG, Wizards rank last in opponent rebounding rate (52%), over in 7/9 vs. bottom defenses like Washington’s.

Player Prop #3: Bilal Coulibaly / Under Points / 12.5 at -105 / 68% / Coulibaly at 11.2 PPG with low usage (18%), Bulls’ top-8 defense holds wings under 13 in 70% of matchups, recent form shows unders in 6/8 games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Bulls, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making following the public the optimal mathematical play amid the Wizards’ 1-14 slump and injury issues like questionable Alex Sarr. Both teams’ bottom-tier offensive ratings (Bulls 109.5, Wizards 105.2) and slow pace suggest a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. No strong contrarian edge exists, as EV supports the favorite across key markets.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Chicago Bulls] — Highest probability backed by 75% simulated win rate and consensus data.

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