Cincinnati vs Baylor

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-28 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-28 08:38 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Cincinnati / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Cincinnati’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (112.5) overwhelms Baylor’s defense at home, with home-field advantage boosting cover probability amid stable line movement.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive efficiencies (Cin 102.0, Bay 105.5) and moderate tempo (71 poss) project controlled scoring, aligning with recent under trends in similar matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Cincinnati / Moneyline / -190 / 62% / Monte Carlo sims show 62% win probability, supported by Cincinnati’s home dominance and Baylor’s road struggles.

🏀 Cincinnati vs Baylor on 2026-01-28

Game Times
ET: 06:30 PM
CT: 05:30 PM
MT: 04:30 PM
PT: 03:30 PM
AKT: 02:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Cincinnati 68% / Baylor 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Cincinnati 60% / Baylor 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Cincinnati -4.5 after opening -5, indicating sharp balance despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Cincinnati spread; sim convergence and efficiency metrics exceed implied odds probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|——————————–|
| Win % for Cincinnati | 61.2% |
| Win % for Baylor | 36.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Cincinnati | 57.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 142.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.1, 20.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Cincinnati, as money percentages support the favorite without significant RLM. Follow the public here, as Cincinnati’s home efficiency edge and sim results confirm value. Game projects moderately low-scoring with strong defenses limiting explosive output.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Cincinnati — sims and metrics project highest win probability on the home favorite.

Highlights unavailable.