Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 05:38 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Boston Celtics / +5.5 / -110 / 55% / Cavs missing key players like Jarrett Allen and Max Strus; sharp money (55%) vs public (65% Cavs) with RLM from -6.5 to -5
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 54% / Injuries to both frontcourts slow pace; teams avg 224 pts in sim, recent Cavs games low-scoring
💰 Best Bet #3 Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -225 / 58% / Home win prob 54% in sim despite injuries; strong home record vs tired Celtics on B2B

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
65% Cavs / 35% Celtics

💰 Money Distribution
45% Cavs / 55% Celtics

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Cavs -6.5, moved to -5 amid injury news and sharp action on Celtics

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 54.2% |
| Win % for Boston Celtics | 45.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) | 49.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 224.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-17.2, 21.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Donovan Mitchell / Over 26.5 Points / -115 / 62% / Elevated usage (35%+) with Garland/Mobley load mgmt and Strus/Allen out; avgs 28 vs BOS defense
Player Prop #2: Jayson Tatum / Over 27.5 Points / -110 / 59% / Celtics B2B but Tatum thrives (30+ in 3/4 vs CLE); Cavs weak wing D w/o Strus
Player Prop #3: Evan Mobley / Over 11.5 Rebounds / -112 / 57% / Starts at C w/ Allen out; 13+ reb in last 5 home starts vs Tatum/Horford lineups

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily backs injured Cavs at home (65%), but divergent money (55% Celtics) and RLM signal sharp fade value on road dog. Injuries decimate Cavs frontcourt (Allen, Nance out), tilting matchup toward Boston cover despite sim home win edge. Game projects low-scoring with depleted rosters and Celtics B2B fatigue limiting pace (avg total 224).

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Celtics +5.5 — divergent market, injuries, and sim support positive EV.

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