Cleveland Cavaliers vs Portland Trail Blazers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-03 06:39 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5 at -110 / 62% Confidence
Cavs show 61.8% cover rate in simulations with heavy Portland injuries depleting backcourt and frontcourt; line moved from -10.5 to -11.5 signaling sharp action despite public support.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 228.5 at -110 / 52% Confidence
Simulation average total of 227.3 points aligns with under edge at 51.8%; both teams recent trends and Blazers’ missing scorers favor lower-scoring affair versus high line expectations.

💰 Best Bet #3 Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline -650 / 72% Confidence
72.4% simulated win probability exceeds implied odds; home dominance and Portland’s extensive injury list (Lillard, Scoot, multiple others out) create clear value.

🏀 Cleveland Cavaliers vs Portland Trail Blazers on 2025-12-03

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Cavs 76% / Blazers 24%

💰 Money Distribution
Cavs 82% / Blazers 18%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Cavs -10.5, moved to -11.5 despite heavy public on favorite, indicating sharp support for Cavs

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Cavs spread; sim cover rate and injury-adjusted metrics exceed implied odds probability

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 72.4% |
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 25.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 61.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 227.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+4.2, +22.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure from provided data inconsistencies and lack of confirmed active lineups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Cavaliers at 76%, aligning with money distribution at 82% and sharp-driven line movement to -11.5, creating consensus value on the home favorite. Portland faces severe injury depletion including Lillard (Achilles), Scoot Henderson (hamstring), Jrue Holiday (calf), and others out or questionable, tilting matchup heavily toward Cleveland’s offensive rating and home efficiency. Game projects low-scoring with simulation average under typical totals, driven by Blazers’ depleted scoring and Cavs’ defensive metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Cavs spread — sharp money and sim metrics confirm highest probability despite popularity.

Highlights unavailable.