Cleveland Cavaliers vs Utah Jazz

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-12 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-12 06:15 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 61% / Cavaliers’ strong home defense and Jazz injuries create a clear edge, with simulation showing 61% cover rate despite public alignment.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 249.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ recent games trend low-scoring (Cavs avg 242 total, Jazz struggling offensively), supported by defensive ratings and key absences like Kessler.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -750 / 76% / Dominant win probability from Monte Carlo sim, bolstered by home advantage and Utah’s poor road form.]

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Utah Jazz on 2026-01-12

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Cleveland Cavaliers 58% / Utah Jazz 42%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Cleveland Cavaliers 63% / Utah Jazz 37%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -13.5 and moved to -12.5, reflecting slight sharp action on Jazz despite public favoritism toward Cavaliers, per recent updates from sportsbooks like DraftKings.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Cavaliers spread / Simulation probabilities exceed implied odds by 4-5% on cover, with positive EV from injury impacts and home metrics outweighing aligned public money.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 76% |
| Win % for Utah Jazz | 24% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 61% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 242 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+8, +18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Donovan Mitchell / Over Points / 28.5 at -110 / 72% / Mitchell’s usage rate spikes to 32% at home against weak Jazz defense (allowing 118 pts/g), with 7/10 recent overs vs similar opponents.
Player Prop #2: Evan Mobley / Over Rebounds / 9.5 at -115 / 68% / Mobley’s 11.2 reb/g average rises vs Jazz’s depleted frontcourt (Kessler out), grabbing 10+ in 6 of last 8 home games.
Player Prop #3: Lauri Markkanen / Under Points / 22.5 at -105 / 65% / Markkanen’s efficiency drops on road (18.4 pts/g), facing Cavs’ top-5 defense in paint protection, under in 5 straight away matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Cavaliers on spread and moneyline, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow-the-public approach optimal rather than fading. Defensive metrics for both teams (Cavs No. 3 in def rating, Jazz top-10 in pace control) suggest a controlled, lower-scoring affair under the total. No contrarian edge emerges, as line stability confirms value on the favorite without overvaluation from hype.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Cleveland Cavaliers / Highest probability stems from 76% win sim, positive EV on spread, and contextual factors like Utah’s injuries and road woes.]

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