NCAAB
Cleveland State vs 
IPFW
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 07:40 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Cleveland St Vikings / +2.5 / -108 / 55% / Home team’s recent games show tight margins (avg margin +3.7 scored/allowed), home advantage offsets slight public lean to away.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 160.5 / -108 / 62% / Recent home totals avg 148 (147,137,161), defensive metrics support low-scoring affair below high line.
💰 Best Bet #3 Fort Wayne Mastodons / Moneyline / -148 / 57% / Model win probability aligns closely with implied odds despite public/money favoritism.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland St Vikings | 44% |
| Win % for Fort Wayne Mastodons | 56% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland St Vikings | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 28% / Under: 72% |
| Average Total Points | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-26, 22] |
🏀 Matchup: Cleveland St Vikings vs Fort Wayne Mastodons on 2026-02-22
💸 Public Bets
[48% / 52% ]
💰 Money Distribution
[43% / 57% ]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Line stable across sources
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Cleveland St +2.5 (model cover 54% > 52.4% implied); +5% on Under (72% prob vs recent avg total 148)
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets slightly favor Fort Wayne (52% spread), with money distribution heavier at 57% indicating mild sharp alignment on the away favorite, but low percentages reduce conviction. Cleveland State’s recent home form (2-1, avg 76 PPG scored/72 allowed) provides home-court edge for spread value, while low recent totals point to under as optimal. Game outlook leans low-scoring given defensive trends in available data, avoiding overreaction to high total line.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Cleveland St Vikings +2.5 — model and recent metrics confirm positive EV despite sentiment.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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