Colgate vs Fordham

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 11:04 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Colgate -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Colgate’s superior adjusted defensive efficiency and recent form give edge despite Fordham home court.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 143.5 at -110 / 59% / Both teams play controlled tempo with strong defenses allowing under 70 PPG recently, projecting low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Colgate ML at -115 / 55% / Colgate’s better KenPom ratings and head-to-head trends support moneyline value.

🏀 Colgate vs Fordham on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Colgate 62% / Fordham 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Colgate 58% / Fordham 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Colgate -1, moved to -1.5 with balanced action despite public lean to favorite; no clear RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Colgate spread / Sim convergence and efficiency metrics outweigh public fade potential.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Colgate | 55.2% |
| Win % for Fordham | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Colgate -1.5 | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.3% / Under: 53.7% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 12.4] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Braedon Bean Over 14.5 Points at -115 / 62% / Bean averages 16.2 PPG in current season, Fordham allows high guard usage; favorable matchup.
Player Prop #2: Taylor Perryman Under 5.5 Assists at -110 / 58% / Perryman at 4.1 APG, Colgate disrupts passing lanes effectively (top-150 turnover force %).
Player Prop #3: Renzo Suppicich Over 7.5 Rebounds at -112 / 60% / Suppicich leads Fordham at 8.4 RPG, Colgate weak on defensive glass (32% opp reb rate).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Colgate but money slightly split, suggesting no strong sharp fade; metrics favor Colgate’s efficiency edge in low-possession game. Game projects low-scoring with both defenses holding opponents under league avg recently. Follow slight contrarian lean on under due to tempo mismatch.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public slightly on Fordham +1.5 — Colgate’s defensive metrics and sim provide mathematical edge.

Highlights unavailable.