NCAAB

Colgate vs Lafayette

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 08:50 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Colgate Raiders / -8.5 / -115 / 64% / Colgate’s superior recent form (2-1 with strong scoring) vs Lafayette’s 0-3 skid with blowout road losses; model projects 12-point average margin.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 145.5 / -110 / 59% / Recent games show mixed totals but public/money skew (58%/62% under) aligns with defensive adjustments and Lafayette’s low offense (avg 66 PPG recent); avg sim total 145.

💰 Best Bet #3 Colgate Raiders / Moneyline / -425 / 78% / Overwhelming edge in efficiency and home court, despite public fade potential on juice.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Colgate Raiders | 78% |
| Win % for Lafayette Leopards | 22% |
| Spread Cover % for Colgate Raiders | 64% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9, 31] |

🏈 Matchup: Colgate Raiders vs Lafayette Leopards on 2026-02-26
💸 Public Bets
[Colgate 48% / Lafayette 52%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Colgate 43% / Lafayette 57%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -8.5 across books

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Colgate -8.5 (sim cover 64% vs -115 implied 53.5%); +2% Under with public consensus.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Braeden Smith (Colgate) / Over 11.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Leads Colgate scoring (~14 PPG season avg), high usage vs weak Lafayette defense allowing guard production.
Player Prop #2: Ryan Moffo (Colgate) / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -115 / 68% / Consistent board work (6+ recent), Lafayette poor opp reb % in losses.
Player Prop #3: Justin Vander Baan (Lafayette) / Under 12.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Struggling scorer (10 PPG recent), Colgate D holds opponents under avg in wins.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets split on spread but heavily favor Colgate ML (90%), while money flows to Lafayette +8.5 indicating possible sharp resistance; however, sim and form metrics (Colgate 75+ PPG offense vs Lafayette 66 PPG) support following favorite on spread despite divergence. Overall game projects low-moderate scoring with under edge from public alignment and Lafayette offensive woes. No major injuries reported, full rosters active.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Lafayette spread / Colgate -8.5 — sim convergence and form disparity outweigh money steam on dog.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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