NCAAB

Columbia vs Dartmouth

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:29 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Columbia Lions / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 64% / Columbia holds strong home efficiency edge in Ivy League play, covering 6+ in 60% of similar spots; public/money split on dog but model projects 7.2 pt average margin.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 67% / Both teams rank bottom-third in tempo and adj offense (KenPom data convergence), recent Ivy games averaging 142 pts; public/money 57-61% under alignment boosts edge.

💰 Best Bet #3 Columbia Lions / Moneyline / -290 / 73% / Implied prob undervalues Columbia’s 73% true win rate from sims and home dominance vs Dartmouth’s road woes.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Columbia Lions | 73% |
| Win % for Dartmouth Big Green | 27% |
| Spread Cover % for Columbia Lions | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 43% / Under: 57% |
| Average Total Points | 149.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, 13.8] |

🏈 Matchup: Columbia Lions vs Dartmouth Big Green on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
Columbia 45% / Dartmouth 55%

💰 Money Distribution
Columbia 40% / Dartmouth 60%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -6.5 across books

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Columbia -6.5 (model cover 58% vs implied 52.4%); under +5.1% EV from defensive metrics convergence

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Columbia ML (81%) with money alignment (86%), but spread sees reverse with 55-60% public/money on Dartmouth +6.5 indicating sharp resistance to favorite. Fade the public on dog justified by sim edge and Ivy home trends. Game projects low-scoring (149 avg pts) from mutual poor adj offenses and under-leaning market.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Dartmouth +6.5 — model math favors Columbia cover.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.