NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Pittsburgh Penguins

League: NHL | Date: 2026-01-04 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-04 10:17 AM EST

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Pittsburgh Penguins on 2026-01-04

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 Pittsburgh Penguins / +1.5 / -180 / 65% / Penguins have covered the puck line in 6 of their last 8 road games against Metropolitan Division foes, with strong defensive metrics limiting Columbus’s scoring efficiency at home.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 55% / Rivalry history shows high-event games with combined xG over 6.2 in recent matchups, flipping the sim’s lean due to Penguins’ leaky penalty kill against Columbus power play.
💰 Best Bet #3 Columbus Blue Jackets / Moneyline / -120 / 60% / Home-ice edge and recent form give Columbus a 57% win probability, with line movement supporting the favorite despite minor injury concerns.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Columbus Blue Jackets | 57.0% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 43.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Columbus Blue Jackets | 42.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.8, 3.5] |

💸 Public Bets
55% Columbus Blue Jackets / 45% Pittsburgh Penguins

💰 Money Distribution
60% Columbus Blue Jackets / 40% Pittsburgh Penguins

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Columbus -110 ML and 5.5 total; moved to -120 ML and 6.0 total with slight steam toward the home favorite on 60% of handle, per Action Network data as of early January 4, 2026.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pittsburgh +1.5, driven by reverse line movement against public underdog backing and Penguins’ 55% ATS road rate in divisional play this season.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Adam Fantilli / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -120 / 70% / Fantilli averages 3.1 SOG in home games this season, facing a Penguins defense allowing 32 shots per game to opposing forwards; matchup favors volume with Monahan out boosting his role.
Player Prop #2: Sidney Crosby / Over Points / 0.5 at -115 / 68% / Crosby has multi-point potential in 65% of games vs. Columbus historically, with Penguins’ power play clicking at 22% efficiency against Jackets’ weak PK.
Player Prop #3: Elvis Merzlikins / Under Saves / 27.5 at -110 / 62% / Merzlikins faces a Penguins offense averaging 28 shots but with low conversion (9.2% shooting %); sim projects under 6 total goals, supporting fewer high-danger chances.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans slightly toward the home favorite, aligning with sharp money on the Columbus side amid stable line movement and no major RLM signals. Following the public here optimizes EV given the home team’s superior xGF metrics (2.8 per 60 at home) and Penguins’ road fatigue after a back-to-back earlier in the week. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced affair around 6 goals, with Columbus’s offense exploiting Pittsburgh’s injuries but defenses holding firm in a rivalry setting.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Columbus Blue Jackets — home advantage and metrics confirm the edge despite the Penguins’ resilience on the puck line.

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