Creighton Bluejays vs South Dakota Coyotes

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-05 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:58 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Creighton Bluejays / Spread / -29.5 at -110 / 62% / Creighton enters as a dominant home favorite against a South Dakota team coming off an overtime loss in their opener, with simulation data showing a 61.4% cover rate supported by superior adjusted efficiencies and home-court advantage.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 169.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ recent tempos and Creighton’s efficient offense project an average total of 171.3 points, favoring the over amid South Dakota’s defensive vulnerabilities exposed in their 81-point allowance last game.

💰 Best Bet #3 Creighton Bluejays / Moneyline / -8000 / 98% / Overwhelming win probability at 97.8% from simulations aligns with Creighton’s top-25 ranking and historical dominance in non-conference openers.

Creighton Bluejays vs South Dakota Coyotes on 2025-11-05

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

85% / 15%

💰 Money Distribution

80% / 20%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -28.5 and ticked up to -29.5 early, stabilizing there with minimal movement despite heavy public action on Creighton; totals held steady around 169.5-170.5 across books like DraftKings and BetMGM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Creighton spread cover, driven by simulation convergence, line stability, and Creighton’s edge in offensive efficiency versus South Dakota’s recent defensive lapses; totals show +2.8% EV on over based on projected pace and scoring trends.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Creighton Bluejays | 97.8% |
| Win % for South Dakota Coyotes | 2.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Creighton Bluejays | 61.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 57.2% / Under: 42.8% |
| Average Total Points | 171.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [22.1, 38.5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Josh Dix / Over Points / 15.5 at -108 / 72% / Dix steps into a larger role with Kalkbrenner’s absence, averaging 16.2 points in preseason exhibitions against mid-major defenses like South Dakota’s, which allowed 81 points in their opener.

Player Prop #2: Pop Isaacs / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 68% / As Creighton’s lead guard, Isaacs projects for high usage in a fast-paced home opener, with his 19.1 PPG in recent scrimmages exploiting South Dakota’s perimeter defense ranked outside the top 200 in efficiency.

Player Prop #3: Steven Ashworth / Over Assists / 5.5 at -112 / 70% / Ashworth’s playmaking thrives in transition against turnover-prone foes, dishing 6.4 assists per game last season while South Dakota forced just 12 turnovers in their loss, favoring distribution opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Creighton, aligning with sharp money indicators and simulation metrics, making a follow on the favorite optimal without contrarian value present. South Dakota’s overtime loss highlights defensive issues that Creighton’s efficient offense (adjusted ~115) should exploit, while both teams’ tempos suggest a moderate-scoring affair leaning over the total line. No major injuries reported for either side as of game day, preserving full rotations.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Creighton Bluejays — the mathematical probability strongly supports their dominance in this mismatch.

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