NCAAB

Creighton vs Xavier

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-21 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-21 11:27 AM EST

Creighton vs Xavier on 2026-01-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [Creighton / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Creighton shows strong home efficiency and recent form against Big East foes, with simulation covering in over half of iterations despite Xavier’s improved play; line stable signals value on favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 153.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit defensive rebounding edges and moderate tempos in recent games, projecting below the total based on adjusted efficiencies and injury-limited scoring.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Creighton / Moneyline / -256 / 72% / Dominant win probability from Monte Carlo runs, bolstered by home-court advantage and Xavier’s road struggles in current season.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[68% Creighton / 32% Xavier]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% Creighton / 45% Xavier]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at -7.5 and held steady through early action, with no significant RLM despite public lean on home team.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Creighton spread; implied odds undervalue home win probability per sim and current season metrics like offensive efficiency (Creighton 112.4 vs. Xavier 105.8).]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Creighton | 72% |
| Win % for Xavier | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Creighton (-7.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 152.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+3.1, +13.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Creighton, aligning partially with money distribution but showing divergence that hints at sharp interest in the underdog; however, mathematical edges support following the public on the spread given Creighton’s home splits and Xavier’s road ATS record (3-7 in current season). No clear contrarian fade emerges, as RLM is absent and EV confirms value on the favorite. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses allowing under 70 points per 100 possessions recently, favoring the under amid potential foul trouble.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Creighton] — simulation and metrics point to highest probability on home win and cover.

Highlights unavailable.