Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-27 04:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-27 10:06 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Cowboys / Spread / +3.5 at -110 / 52% / Reverse line movement against public backing Chiefs supports value, with simulation showing slight cover edge amid Cowboys’ home motivation on Thanksgiving.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 52.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses allow under 25 PPG recently, combined with avg sim total of 48 points favoring a lower-scoring affair despite high line.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Kansas City Chiefs / Moneyline / -175 / 55% / Chiefs hold edge in win probability from EPA metrics and Mahomes’ efficiency, though line movement tempers outright value.]

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs on 2025-11-27

Game Times

ET: 4:30 PM
CT: 3:30 PM
MT: 2:30 PM
PT: 1:30 PM
AKT: 12:30 PM
HST: 10:30 AM

Public Bets

Chiefs 68% / Cowboys 32%

Money Distribution

Chiefs 65% / Cowboys 35%

Market Alignment

Aligned

Line Movement

Opened at Chiefs -4.5, moved to -3.5 despite heavy public action on Kansas City, signaling potential sharp resistance on the Cowboys side.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Cowboys spread; reverse line movement combined with simulation cover probability creates positive EV, outweighing public consensus.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Cowboys | 45.0% |
| Win % for Kansas City Chiefs | 55.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Cowboys | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 48.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.0, 8.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Patrick Mahomes / Over Passing Yards / 270.5 at -110 / 65% / Cowboys rank 3rd in zone coverage usage where Mahomes excels (top-5 EPA), with secondary injuries boosting pass volume against a Chiefs offense averaging 280+ yards.
Player Prop #2: CeeDee Lamb / Over Receiving Yards / 74.5 at -110 / 60% / Lamb’s 25% target share persists despite minor ankle dip, facing Chiefs’ man coverage weakness (allow 80+ yds to WR1 in 70% of games).
Player Prop #3: Isiah Pacheco / Over Rushing Yards / 50 at -110 / 70% / Cowboys concede 120+ rush yds per game to backs lately, aligning with Pacheco’s 65-yd avg and 4.8 YPC efficiency in favorable matchups.

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment and money distribution both favor the Chiefs, but reverse line movement toward the Cowboys indicates sharp action diverging from the crowd, supported by simulation edges on spread and total. Following the public here lacks EV, making a contrarian lean optimal given NFL primetime underdog trends. Overall scoring outlook points low, with combined defensive EPA suggesting under 50 points amid potential weather factors in Dallas.

Recommended Play

Fade the public on Dallas Cowboys +3.5 — mathematical probability favors the cover based on line movement and contextual metrics.

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