Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-05 08:40 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Mavericks / Spread / -8.5 at -110 / 55% / Dallas holds a clear edge with home-court advantage and Pelicans’ key absences like Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray, aligning with simulation cover rate amid New Orleans’ defensive vulnerabilities.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 227 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank low in offensive efficiency this season (Mavs at 107.3 PPG, Pelicans hampered by injuries), with recent games averaging under the line and simulation projecting 225 total points.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Dallas Mavericks / Moneyline / -320 / 68% / Strong simulation win probability supported by Dallas’ healthier rotation and Pelicans’ 0-4 road start, offering value despite juice on the favorite.]

🏀 Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans on 2025-11-05

Game Times

ET: 8:30 PM
CT: 7:30 PM
MT: 6:30 PM
PT: 5:30 PM
AKT: 4:30 PM
HST: 2:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[72% / 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[58% / 42%]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -7.5 for Dallas but ticked to -8.5 amid sharp action on the favorite, despite heavy public backing of the Mavs; total steady at 227 after minor dip from 228.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Dallas -8.5, driven by reverse line movement indicating professional money against public sentiment, combined with Pelicans’ injury-plagued offense (averaging 102.1 PPG without Zion) and Dallas’ home defense allowing just 110.5 PPG.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Mavericks | 68% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Mavericks | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 225 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Trey Murphy III / Points / Over 20.5 at -110 / 62% / Murphy leads Pelicans in scoring (21.8 PPG) with increased usage sans Zion; Dallas allows 24.2 PPG to opposing SGs, supporting over in 7 of last 10 games.
Player Prop #2: P.J. Washington / Points + Rebounds / Over 25.5 at -110 / 58% / Washington averages 18.2 PTS + 8.1 REB in expanded role; Pelicans rank 25th in defensive rebounding rate, favoring his efficiency (55% TS%).
Player Prop #3: Cooper Flagg / Assists / Over 3.5 at -105 / 60% / Flagg’s playmaking surges at home (4.2 APG), exploiting Pelicans’ turnover-prone guards (14.8 TOPG); on/off data shows +5.2 net rating with his passes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Dallas at 72%, but money distribution leans 58% to the Mavs with reverse line movement from -7.5 to -8.5 signaling sharp buy-in on the spread despite the juice. Following the public aligns with math here given Dallas’ superior metrics, though fading over on total exploits injury-impacted paces (both teams under 98 possessions recently). Overall scoring outlook points low, with combined offensive ratings below league average and key absences limiting explosiveness.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Dallas — simulation and contextual edges confirm the favorite’s path to victory and cover.

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