Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-15 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-15 06:10 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dallas Stars / Spread / -1.5 at +120 / 58% / Dallas has dominated recent home games with strong defensive play and high shot volume, covering the puck line in 4 of last 5, while Flyers struggle on the road against top teams.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show offensive trends with Dallas averaging 4.2 goals in recent wins and Flyers involved in high-scoring affairs, supported by average shots exceeding 60 combined per game.
💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Stars / Moneyline / -222 / 62% / Simulation and form favor the Stars at home, with superior xGF metrics and key injuries sidelining Flyers’ depth.

🏒 Matchup: Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers on 2025-11-15

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Dallas Stars 68% / Philadelphia Flyers 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Dallas Stars 75% / Philadelphia Flyers 25%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Dallas -1.5 (+130) and moved to -1.5 (+120) with heavy money on the home side, total steady at 6 despite public leaning over.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Dallas puck line; consensus from sharp money and recent form indicates value despite public support, as Flyers’ road xGA exceeds 3.0 per game.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 62% |
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Stars | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 6.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.8, 4.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jake Oettinger / Over Saves / 28.5 at -115 / 72% / Oettinger faces high shot volume from Flyers’ attack, averaging 30 saves in home starts with .925 SV% against similar opponents, bolstered by Dallas’ defensive structure limiting high-danger chances.
Player Prop #2: Jason Robertson / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 68% / Robertson leads Stars in usage with 3.8 SOG average recently, exploiting Flyers’ weak PK and road defensive lapses allowing 32 shots per game to top lines.
Player Prop #3: Travis Konecny / Under Points / 0.5 at -110 / 65% / Konecny’s production dips on road (0.6 PPG) against strong goaltending like Oettinger’s .910 high-danger SV%, with Flyers’ power play inefficient at 18% this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Stars, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as EV supports the home side without contrarian signals. The game projects as moderately high-scoring given Dallas’ offensive efficiency (xGF/60 of 3.2) versus Philadelphia’s leaky road defense (3.1 xGA/60), though key injuries like Benn and Ristolainen temper explosive outputs. Overall, metrics converge on Dallas covering with a slight over lean.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Dallas Stars — simulation win probability and market consensus confirm the edge.

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