Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-07 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-07 09:03 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Stars / Spread / -1.5 at +110 / 48% / Stars’ home advantage and superior record (19-5-5) provide cover potential despite injuries, with sim showing 48% cover rate aligning with sharp money.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6 at -110 / 52% / Injuries to key scorers on both sides limit offense; sim indicates flipped under edge for low-scoring affair based on adjusted xGA rates.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Pittsburgh Penguins / Moneyline / +160 / 42% / Penguins offer value as underdog with Stars’ extensive injury list (Seguin out for season, Hintz sidelined); sim win probability supports positive EV against heavy public favorite backing.]

Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins on 2025-12-07

Game Times

ET: 06:00 PM
CT: 05:00 PM
MT: 04:00 PM
PT: 03:00 PM
AKT: 02:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Dallas Stars 65% / Pittsburgh Penguins 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Dallas Stars 55% / Pittsburgh Penguins 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

[Line stable at Stars -1.5 despite 65% public on home side, indicating some sharp resistance on Penguins +1.5]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4% on Penguins ML / Implied odds at -194 give Stars 66% win prob, but sim and injuries adjust true prob to 58%, creating value on underdog]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 58% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Penguins | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Stars | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Wyatt Johnston / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -120 / 65% / Johnston’s high usage (avg 3.2 SOG last 10 games) vs Penguins’ weak high-danger defense (allowing 12% shots); recent form supports over despite Stars injuries.

Player Prop #2: Sidney Crosby / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -150 / 70% / Crosby’s 0.9 PPG pace in current season, Penguins’ PP at 22% edges Stars’ PK (injured defenders weaken it further); matchup favors production.

Player Prop #3: Jason Robertson / Under 3.5 SOG / 3.5 at -110 / 62% / Robertson avg 2.8 SOG with Stars’ top line disrupted by injuries; Penguins’ Corsi defense limits shots, sim projects low volume in contained game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors the Stars at 65%, but divergent money (55% on Stars) and stable lines suggest sharp action on Penguins amid Dallas’ injury crisis (102 man-games lost, including Seguin’s season-ending ACL). Math supports fading the public on the underdog due to positive EV from adjusted win probs and RLM signals. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring with depleted offenses on both teams, favoring under totals based on xGA metrics and injury impacts.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Pittsburgh Penguins / Value aligns with sharp money and sim edges despite public sentiment on injured Stars.]

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