Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-09 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 05:10 PM EST

Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Dallas Stars / Spread / -1.5 at +120 / 55% / Dallas leverages home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics (2.8 per 60) against Seattle’s fatigued back-to-back schedule, with key injuries like Daccord sidelining their top goalie.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -130 / 58% / Both teams rank top-10 in defensive Corsi% (Dallas 52.5%, Seattle 51.2%), recent games averaging 5.8 goals combined, favoring low-scoring affair with Oettinger (.915 SV%) in net.
💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Stars / Moneyline / -205 / 65% / Stars’ 7-4-3 record and strong PP (22%) outpace Kraken’s 6-3-4 form, especially without Benn and Duchene but core intact versus Seattle’s road woes.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|————————-|————————|
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 62% |
| Win % for Seattle Kraken | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Dallas Stars | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

💸 Public Bets
68% Dallas Stars / 32% Seattle Kraken

💰 Money Distribution
75% Dallas Stars / 25% Seattle Kraken

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Dallas -190 ML and 6 total; moved to -210 ML and 6.5 total with sharp money on home side despite public lean, indicating pro action on Stars cover.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Dallas -1.5; implied prob 45% vs. simulated 48% cover rate, supported by RLM and injuries tilting matchup.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jason Robertson / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -210 / 75% / Robertson’s 1.2 points per game average and 55% usage rate exploit Kraken’s weak PK (78%), hitting in 8 of last 10.
Player Prop #2: Wyatt Johnston / Anytime Goal Scorer / Yes at +145 / 60% / Johnston on 4-game streak with 3.2 SOG/game, facing Seattle’s .890 high-danger SV% without Daccord.
Player Prop #3: Vince Dunn / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at +150 / 65% / Dunn leads Kraken D with 0.8 A/game on PP (20% efficiency), Stars allow 1.1 PP points per matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Dallas, aligning with sharp money as lines steam toward the home favorite amid Seattle’s back-to-back fatigue and goalie injury. Following the public proves optimal here, backed by EV-positive edges on spread and under without contrarian signals. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with defensive metrics and rest disparity projecting under 6 goals in 52% of simulations.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dallas Stars — mathematical probability favors home win at 62%, amplified by contextual edges like travel and injuries.

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