NCAAB

Dayton vs Duquesne

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 08:35 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dayton Flyers / -6 / -110 / 58% / Dayton’s superior recent form (wins over strong opponents) and home advantage align with sharp money edge on spread despite even public bets.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 148.5 / -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive strengths in recent outings (Dayton allowing 83 avg), public/money heavily on under (57%/61%), low pace expected.

💰 Best Bet #3 Dayton Flyers / Moneyline / -250 / 72% / Heavy public/sharp alignment (75%/80% on Dayton), model projects dominant home win probability.

Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dayton Flyers | 72% |
| Win % for Duquesne Dukes | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Dayton Flyers | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 147.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.2, 21.8] |

🏈 Matchup: Dayton Flyers vs Duquesne Dukes on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[50% / 50%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable around -6 to -5.5, slight shift toward home despite balanced public bets

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Dayton -6 (model 58% cover vs implied 52%); under +3% (52% vs 52% implied)

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money align on Dayton as favorite, with even spread bets but money edge home; no RLM signals contrarian play. Defensive metrics and recent Dayton games (avg total ~162 but adjusted for matchup ~147) point to low-scoring affair favoring under. Follow public/aligned math on home spread and ML.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dayton — highest EV on spread and moneyline.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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