NCAAB

Dayton vs Georgetown

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-27 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-27 07:02 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dayton / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Dayton’s home advantage and recent form edge out Georgetown’s undefeated streak, with simulation showing a slight cover probability despite public lean toward the Hoyas.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit moderate offensive efficiencies in early season play, with defensive rebounding and tempo suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair based on current metrics.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Dayton / Moneyline / -120 / 52% / Close matchup but Dayton’s simulated win probability holds a narrow edge, supported by home-court factors and balanced scoring distribution.]

🏀 Matchup: Dayton vs Georgetown on 2025-11-27

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[55% Georgetown / 45% Dayton]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% Dayton / 40% Georgetown]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Dayton -1 and moved to -1.5 despite heavy public action on Georgetown, indicating potential sharp interest in the Flyers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Dayton spread / Reverse line movement against public percentage suggests value in fading the Hoyas’ hype from their 5-0 start, aligned with simulation outcomes.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dayton | 52% |
| Win % for Georgetown | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Dayton | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Georgetown due to their unbeaten record, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp action on Dayton, making a fade of the public optimal for value. Both teams’ early-season defensive efficiencies and moderate tempos support a lower-scoring game, with the under holding a slight edge. Overall, the matchup projects as tight, with home advantage tipping the scales toward the Flyers without clear overvaluation.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Georgetown] — mathematical probability favors Dayton based on line movement and simulation convergence.

Highlights unavailable.