Delaware vs Jacksonville State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-02 12:13 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Delaware / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 60% / Delaware benefits from home-court advantage and superior defensive efficiency in recent outings, covering in 6 of last 8 home games.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 135.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a fast pace with Jacksonville State’s offense averaging 75 points per game, pushing totals over in 70% of combined matchups.
💰 Best Bet #3 Delaware / Moneyline / -200 / 65% / Delaware’s adjusted efficiency rating edges out Jacksonville State, with strong win probability supported by current season form.

Delaware vs Jacksonville State on 2026-01-02

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Delaware 65% / Jacksonville State 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Delaware 58% / Jacksonville State 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action, showing slight softening despite public lean on home team.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Delaware spread due to reverse line movement hints at sharp support, combined with home efficiency metrics from current season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Delaware | 62.3% |
| Win % for Jacksonville State | 37.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Delaware | 58.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 136.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.4, 16.7] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Vonnie Mitchell (Delaware) / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 70% / Mitchell averages 16.2 points in home games this season, exploiting Jacksonville State’s weak perimeter defense allowing 38% from three.
Player Prop #2: Daeshon Shepherd (Jacksonville State) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -110 / 65% / Shepherd’s rebounding dips to 5.1 against strong interior defenses like Delaware’s, with recent form showing unders in 4 of 5 road games.
Player Prop #3: Jameer Nelson Jr. (Delaware) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 68% / Nelson facilitates at a 25% rate, and Jacksonville State’s turnover-prone guards (18% turnover rate) create extra opportunities in transition.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Delaware, aligning with money distribution and mathematical projections, making following the home team optimal rather than fading. Sharp action appears supportive via line stability. Overall game outlook points to a moderate-scoring affair, with Delaware’s defense capping Jacksonville State’s output below their average.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Delaware — strong convergence of metrics and market data indicate high win probability for the home favorite.

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