Denver Nuggets vs Atlanta Hawks

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-09 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-09 06:26 PM EST

Denver Nuggets vs Atlanta Hawks on 2026-01-09

💰 Best Bet #1 [Atlanta Hawks / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 62% / Hawks show strong recent form and exploit Nuggets’ key absences like Jokic, covering in simulations despite public lean toward home team]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 225.5 at -110 / 57% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and Nuggets’ injuries suggest lower scoring, aligning with under trends in similar matchups]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Atlanta Hawks / Moneyline / +100 / 58% / Atlanta’s clean injury report and road resilience give edge over depleted Nuggets, per advanced ratings and line value]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Nuggets | 42% |
| Win % for Atlanta Hawks | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Nuggets | 38% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 43% / Under: 57% |
| Average Total Points | 221.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +4.1] |

Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Nuggets 65% / Hawks 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Nuggets 55% / Hawks 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Nuggets -2.5 but moved to -1.5 with sharp action on Hawks despite public favoritism toward Denver, indicating professional money on the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4% on Hawks spread / Line value from RLM and injuries creates positive EV, as simulations show 62% cover rate exceeding implied odds probability.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jamal Murray / Over Points / 22.5 at -115 / 68% / Murray’s usage spikes without Jokic (28.4 PPG in similar spots), Hawks’ perimeter defense allows 24+ to guards recently.

Player Prop #2: Trae Young / Over Assists / 9.5 at -110 / 72% / Young’s playmaking thrives vs. Nuggets’ depleted frontcourt (10.2 APG last 5 road games), high assist rate against slower defenses.

Player Prop #3: Aaron Gordon / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -105 / 65% / Gordon’s rebounding dips in Jokic-out games (5.8 RPG average), Hawks control boards effectively per recent metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the home Nuggets, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement signal sharp action on the Hawks, supported by math from injuries and form. Following the contrarian side on Atlanta aligns with positive EV, as Nuggets’ absences weaken their interior. Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both offenses hampered by Denver’s missing stars and Atlanta’s deliberate pace reducing possessions.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Hawks] — mathematical probability favors Atlanta’s upset potential in this spot.

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