Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-04 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 09:40 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Lions / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / Lions hold edge at home with superior EPA metrics despite recent losses; sim shows 52% cover rate aligning with sharp money resistance to public Cowboys action.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 54 at -110 / 53% / Avg sim total 51.8 points below line; both teams’ recent games trend low-scoring with Lions allowing 24 PPG lately and Cowboys defense improving.

💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Lions / Moneyline / -150 / 62% / 62% sim win probability exceeds implied odds (60%); home-field and coaching edges outweigh Cowboys’ road primetime struggles.

🏈 Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys on 2025-12-04

Game Times

ET: 8:15 PM
CT: 7:15 PM
MT: 6:15 PM
PT: 5:15 PM
AKT: 4:15 PM
HST: 2:15 PM

💸 Public Bets

Lions 52% / Cowboys 48% (spread); Cowboys 69% (ML)

💰 Money Distribution

Lions 51% / Cowboys 49% (spread); Cowboys 81% (ML)

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened Lions -3.5, moved to -3 despite heavy public bets on Cowboys spread and ML, indicating potential sharp action on Lions. Total steady at 54.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4% on Lions -3 (RLM supports amid 70%+ public on Cowboys in primetime spot; sim cover aligns with EV threshold).

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Lions | 62% |
| Win % for Dallas Cowboys | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Lions (-3.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 51.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-7.2, +4.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Dak Prescott / Over Passing Yards / 285.5 at -115 / 58% / Prescott averages 290+ YPG vs Lions-like defenses; high usage with Lamb drawing coverage, recent 320 YDS outing.
Player Prop #2: David Montgomery / Over Rushing Yards / 65.5 at -110 / 60% / Lions RB1 faces Cowboys run D allowing 4.9 YPC inside; Montgomery 70+ in 4/5 recent, Lions WR injuries boost volume.
Player Prop #3: CeeDee Lamb / Over Receptions / 6.5 at -120 / 57% / Lamb WR1 target hog (12+ per game); Lions secondary banged up with pass catcher injuries, 7+ rec in 70% matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily backing Cowboys ML and spread in this primetime underdog spot, but divergent money and RLM toward Lions signal sharp resistance. Math favors fading public with Lions cover given home EPA edge and sim probabilities. Game projects low-scoring with both offenses cooling (Lions 17 PPG last 3, Cowboys road unders 4/5).

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Cowboys — Lions spread offers highest EV in contrarian primetime setup.

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