Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-04 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:08 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dallas Cowboys / +3.5 / at -110 / 56% / RLM from Lions -5.5 to -3.5 signals sharp action despite heavy public on Lions; Lions’ recent offense averaging just 14 PPG in last 3, sim cover only 52%

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 54.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ recent games trending low (Lions unders in 2/3, Cowboys mixed but Lions defense allows 20.3 PPG); avg sim total 51.8 below line

💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Lions / Moneyline / -162 / 62% / Home-field edge at Ford Field, sim win prob 62% aligns with implied odds, superior EPA metrics despite recent skid

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Lions | 62% |
| Win % for Dallas Cowboys | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Lions (-3.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 51.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-7.2, +4.1] |

🏈 Matchup: Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys on 2025-12-04

Game Times
ET: 08:15 PM
CT: 07:15 PM
MT: 06:15 PM
PT: 05:15 PM
AKT: 04:15 PM
HST: 02:15 PM

💸 Public Bets
Lions 75% / Cowboys 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Lions 60% / Cowboys 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Lions -6 (total 49.5), moved to Lions -3.5 (total 54.5) despite heavy public action on Lions, indicating RLM toward Cowboys

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Cowboys +3.5 offers +4% EV; RLM + public fade (75% public on Lions) + Lions’ 1-2 recent form with poor offense outweigh sim’s slim Lions cover edge

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: David Montgomery / Over 65.5 Rush Yards / -110 / 72% / Cowboys allowing 4.9+ YPC inside runs (8th-most vulnerable); Montgomery primary back, 75% usage in recent games, Lions pace favors ground game
Player Prop #2: CeeDee Lamb / Over 74.5 Receiving Yards / -115 / 68% / Leads team in targets (28% share), Lions secondary ranked 22nd in rec yards allowed to WR1; 6+ catches in 80% recent outings
Player Prop #3: Jared Goff / Over 245.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 65% / Cowboys pass defense 18th in EPA/play allowed; Goff 260+ avg at home, Lions air rate up vs softer secondary without recent injuries

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Lions spread amid home hype, but divergent money and RLM to Cowboys side signal sharp resistance, justified by Lions’ offensive woes (14 PPG last 3) and Cowboys’ ATS resilience (7-5). Fade public optimal here with +EV on dog spread. Game projects low-scoring under due to Lions D (top-10 EPA) vs Cowboys run-lean attack and mutual red-zone struggles.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Lions — Cowboys +3.5 carries strongest math from RLM, form mismatch, and sim margin CI supporting cover.

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