Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-05 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-05 06:15 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Pistons / Spread / +3.5 at -110 / 60% / Pistons show value as home underdogs with recent form and Knicks’ injuries weakening their depth, supported by simulation cover rate.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 232.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive ratings and key absences suggest a controlled pace, aligning with average total of 232.1 from simulations.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Detroit Pistons / Moneyline / +132 / 54% / Home advantage and probable return of Cunningham tilt the edge despite public favoritism toward Knicks.]

Detroit Pistons vs New York Knicks on 2026-01-05

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Pistons | 54% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Pistons (+3.5) | 59% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 232.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, +7.4] |

💸 Public Bets
[Knicks 70% / Pistons 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Pistons 55% / Knicks 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Knicks -3.5 but moved to -1.5 despite heavy public action on New York, indicating sharp money on Detroit.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pistons spread, driven by reverse line movement and simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cade Cunningham / Over 25.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Cunningham’s usage rate spikes at home (28.5% in recent games), and Knicks’ perimeter defense ranks 18th, supporting over based on his 26.2 PPG average against similar foes.

Player Prop #2: Jalen Brunson / Over 8.5 Assists / -115 / 65% / Brunson’s playmaking thrives in transition (9.1 APG last 5), with Pistons allowing 8.7 assists to point guards; Towns’ presence boosts his opportunities without Hart.

Player Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns / Over 12.5 Rebounds / -105 / 68% / Towns grabs 13.4 RPG on the road, exploiting Pistons’ weak interior (45.2% opponent rebound rate) minus Duren, with high offensive rebounding efficiency.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Knicks due to their star power and recent wins, but sharp money and line movement point toward the Pistons, creating a fade opportunity backed by EV calculations and home metrics. Defensive efficiencies for both sides (Pistons 112.3 DRTG, Knicks 110.8) suggest a lower-scoring affair, favoring the under. Overall, contrarian value lies with Detroit amid injury impacts.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pistons — simulations and market signals confirm the highest probability for a home upset or cover.

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