Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-05 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-05 06:18 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Pistons / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 60% / Pistons hold a strong home edge against an injury-riddled Blazers squad, with recent form showing dominance in paint scoring and defensive efficiency; sim cover rate supports value despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 226.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for pace and offensive rating this season, with Portland’s key absences limiting scoring potential; defensive metrics and recent unders in similar matchups favor the under.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Detroit Pistons / Moneyline / -320 / 68% / Detroit’s superior roster depth and home-court advantage overwhelm a depleted Portland lineup, aligning with sim win probability and sharp money trends.]

Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers on 2025-12-05

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[72% / 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[35% / 65%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Pistons -6.5 but moved to -7.5 amid sharp action on Detroit despite heavy public backing on the favorite, indicating professional resistance to the Blazers as a short underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Pistons spread; reverse line movement against public percentage creates value, supported by injury impacts and home metrics yielding a 3-5% edge over implied odds.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Pistons | 68.0% |
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 32.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Pistons | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 225.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-11.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cade Cunningham / Over Points / 26.5 at -115 / 72% / Cunningham averages 27.8 PPG in home games this season with elevated usage against weakened backcourts; Blazers’ absences boost his shot volume, hitting over in 8 of last 10 similar spots.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Duren / Over Rebounds / 11.5 at -110 / 68% / Duren grabs 12.2 RPG at home, exploiting Portland’s thin frontcourt without key bigs; defensive rebounding rate of 28% vs. Blazers’ poor interior defense supports the over.
Player Prop #3: Anfernee Simons / Over Points / 24.5 at -105 / 65% / Simons leads Blazers scoring at 25.1 PPG without Lillard/Henderson, facing Pistons’ average perimeter D; over in 7 of 9 games with increased usage this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Pistons, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement suggest sharp action on Detroit’s spread amid Portland’s extensive injuries, making a follow on the home side optimal with positive EV. The game outlook points to moderate scoring, as both offenses struggle without stars and defenses clamp down in the paint, favoring unders based on pace and efficiency data. Overall, metrics converge on Detroit covering at home without forcing a fade.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Detroit Pistons] — mathematical probability aligns with home dominance and sim outcomes for the highest win edge.

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