Detroit Pistons vs San Antonio Spurs

League: NBA | Game Time: 2026-02-23 08:00 PM ET | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 10:38 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Detroit Pistons / -1 / -1 at -112 / 58% / Pistons on 8-2 tear averaging +12.9 margin, strong home defense (106.2 PPG allowed), slight RLM support from money % edge.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 227.5 at -110 / 57% / Recent DET totals avg 225.3, SAS defensive lapses vs elite but money 58% under signals sharp lean, pace favors controlled game.
💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Pistons / Moneyline / -118 / 56% / Home form convergence with 54% public/59% money alignment, superior recent efficiency edges out Spurs road woes.

Simulation Results (10,000 Monte Carlo Runs)
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Pistons | 54.0% |
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 46.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Pistons | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 226.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-30.2, 33.1] |

🏈 Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs San Antonio Spurs on 2026-02-24

💸 Public Bets
[51% / 49%]

💰 Money Distribution
[56% / 44%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable across books, minor homeward steam with money % > bets %

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Pistons -1 (model prob 55% vs implied 52.8%), positive from form/sharp convergence; under +2.8% EV on defensive metrics.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cade Cunningham / Over 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -110 / 65% / Leads DET scoring at ~26 PPG pace from recent, high usage 32% vs Spurs weak guard D.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Duren / Over 10.5 Rebounds / 10.5 at -112 / 62% / Averages 11+ RPG lately, exploits SAS thin frontcourt (Olynyk/Biyombo undersized), DET pace boosts opp.
Player Prop #3: De’Aaron Fox / Over 22.5 Points / 22.5 at -110 / 60% / Spurs lead scorer ~24 PPG recent explosions, favorable DET perimeter D ranking allows ISO volume.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment slightly favors Pistons on spread/ML with money % reinforcing (56/44), aligning with sharp action and DET’s dominant 8-2 run (+12.9 margin). Follow optimal here as EV confirms no fade needed; Spurs hot streak inflated by weak foes. Overall scoring tilts under on DET stingy D (106 PPG allowed) vs SAS road regression.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Detroit Pistons — model/sharp/public convergence yields highest win prob.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.