Duke vs Howard

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-23 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-23 09:07 AM EST

Duke vs Howard on 2025-11-23

💰 Best Bet #1 Duke / Spread / -39.5 at -110 / 75% / Duke’s elite adjusted efficiency and undefeated home record overpower Howard’s defensive weaknesses in the current season.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 153.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at high tempos with Duke’s offense averaging 88 points and Howard allowing 80, favoring a shootout despite injuries.
💰 Best Bet #3 Duke / Moneyline / -10000 / 98% / Overwhelming talent gap with Duke’s top-ranked roster dominating mid-majors this season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duke | 98.0% |
| Win % for Howard | 2.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke | 75.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.0% / Under: 45.0% |
| Average Total Points | 156.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [30.0, 70.0] |

Game Times
ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Duke 95% / Howard 5%

💰 Money Distribution
Duke 85% / Howard 15%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Duke -38.5, moved to -39.5 with heavy sharp action on the favorite despite public overload.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.5% EV on Duke spread; implied probability undervalues Duke’s 75% cover rate based on season metrics and home dominance.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cooper Flagg / Over Points / 22.5 at -115 / 78% / Flagg averages 24.2 points this season with high usage against weaker defenses like Howard’s, which allows 25+ to top scorers.

Player Prop #2: Isaiah Evans / Over Points / 12.5 at -110 / 72% / Evans’ 15.1 PPG in recent games exploits Howard’s perimeter defense, ranked bottom-100 in opponent 3PT%.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Scott / Under Points / 8.5 at -105 / 70% / Scott’s 6.8 PPG limited by Duke’s elite interior defense, holding guards under 10 in 80% of matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Duke, aligning with sharp money and season metrics showing Duke’s top-5 efficiency ratings against Howard’s middling form. Following the public is optimal here as EV confirms the favorite without contrarian signals. The game projects as high-scoring with combined offensive paces exceeding 70 possessions and minimal key injuries impacting output.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Duke — mathematical probability strongly supports the favorite in this mismatch.

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