NCAAB
Duke vs 
Michigan
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 6:30 PM ET • 5:30 PM CT • 4:30 PM MT • 3:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:17 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Michigan Wolverines / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation shows Michigan with 55% win probability and money 58% on away despite public near split, creating edge on favorite cover
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 51% / Average simulated total 148.4 below line with defensive metrics and recent low-scoring trends favoring under
💰 Best Bet #3 Michigan Wolverines / Moneyline / -154 / 55% / Converging sim win %, sharp money disparity (58%), and away team efficiency ratings support favorite
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duke Blue Devils | 42.4% |
| Win % for Michigan Wolverines | 55.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke Blue Devils | 49.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.1% / Under: 49.9% |
| Average Total Points | 148.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-31, 36] |
🏀 Matchup: Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines
💸 Public Bets
[Duke 47% / Michigan 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Duke 42% / Michigan 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
No significant movement reported
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1.8% on Duke +2.5; money % exceeds bets signaling value against line
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment slightly favors Michigan at 53% bets with sharper money at 58% also on the Wolverines, creating alignment but simulation shows tight spread cover probabilities near 50% indicating value fading heavy action. Overall game scoring outlook leans low with average total of 148.4 points against the 150.5 line, supported by defensive efficiencies. Follow sharp money on Michigan but monitor for RLM.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Duke — Michigan holds mathematical edge with superior sim win % and money convergence.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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