Duke vs Wake Forest

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:42 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Duke -1.5 at -110 | 60% Confidence | Duke holds strong home edge with 5-2 ACC record, superior success rate in recent games, and Wake Forest’s road struggles despite better overall mark.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 51.5 at -110 | 58% Confidence | Both teams show defensive improvements lately (Wake allowing low scores in wins, Duke tightening after losses), combined with moderate tempo projecting below line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Duke -120 | 59% Confidence | Line value aligns with Duke’s home-field advantage and edge in explosive plays per current season metrics.

Duke vs Wake Forest on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Duke 62% / Wake Forest 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Duke 68% / Wake Forest 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Duke -1.5, steady to -2 amid balanced action; no significant RLM indicating sharp divergence.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Duke spread — implied prob undervalues Duke’s home SP+ edge and Wake’s 4-3 ACC finish.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duke | 58% |
| Win % for Wake Forest | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Duke (-1.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability (51.5) | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 50.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.2, 12.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Ma’Khi Jones (Duke) / Over 65.5 Rushing Yards / -115 / 65% Confidence | Duke RB leads backfield usage (avg 72 yds last 5), Wake vulnerable to run (4.8 ypc allowed recently).
Player Prop #2: Robby Ashford (Wake) / Under 220.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 62% Confidence | Ashford efficient but low volume vs Duke secondary (top-30 havoc rate), projecting contained output.
Player Prop #3: Jaquez Moore (Duke) / Over 4.5 Receptions / +100 / 60% Confidence | Slot role boosts targets (5.2 rec avg), Wake CBs weak in slot coverage per season data.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Duke but money follows heavier, signaling consensus without sharp pushback; follow aligns with math as EV positive on home side. Game projects moderate scoring with both defenses stepping up in rivalry spot, favoring under. No major injuries alter outlook per latest reports.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Duke — highest probability edge confirmed by sim and market data.

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