Duquesne vs Davidson

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 08:53 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Duquesne Dukes / -2.5 / -110 / 55% / Home advantage and stronger recent scoring output (avg 85 PPG) vs Davidson’s variable road defense support cover despite even public splits.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 142.5 / -110 / 58% / Recent Davidson road games low-scoring (avg total ~125), Duquesne highs tempered by matchup, money slightly on under aligns with defensive metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Duquesne Dukes / Moneyline / -164 / 60% / Model win probability converges with ML implied odds and home form, public/money alignment favors without heavy distortion.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Duquesne Dukes | 58% |
| Win % for Davidson Wildcats | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Duquesne Dukes | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-17, 23] |

🏀 Duquesne Dukes vs Davidson Wildcats

💸 Public Bets
[50% / 50%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -2.5; even public bets with slight money on home indicates no sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Duquesne -2.5]; Poisson sims show 54% cover rate vs -110 implied 52.4%, positive EV from home scoring edge.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jimmy Clark (Duquesne) / Over 17.5 Points / -112 / 72% / Averages 19+ PPG in recent outings, high usage vs Davidson’s road defense allowing guard production.
Player Prop #2: Sean Johnson (Duquesne) / Over 6.5 Rebounds / -110 / 68% / Strong rebounding rate (7.3 recent), exploits Davidson’s lower opp reb % in low-pace games.
Player Prop #3: Bobby Durkin (Davidson) / Under 14.5 Points / -108 / 70% / Subdued road scoring (11.5 avg away), Duquesne def limits wings effectively.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment even on spread with slight money favoring Duquesne aligns with sharp indicators and sim outcomes, making follow optimal over fade. Recent Duquesne games show offensive firepower while Davidson’s road tilts defensive, supporting under lean. Overall low-to-mid scoring outlook with home edge decisive.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Duquesne Dukes — sim and market convergence yields highest probability.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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