NCAAB

Elon vs Northern Illinois

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-13 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-13 10:55 AM EST

🏀 Matchup: Elon vs Northern Illinois on 2025-12-13

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Elon / Spread / -12.5 at -110 / 60% / Elon’s strong home efficiency and Northern Illinois’s road struggles align with simulation cover rate, supported by recent form showing Elon winning by double digits in similar matchups]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 142.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive rebounding, with defensive metrics favoring a lower-scoring affair per adjusted efficiencies]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Elon / Moneyline / -750 / 78% / Dominant win probability from Monte Carlo runs, bolstered by Elon’s 5-4 record and Northern Illinois’s three-game skid]

💸 Public Bets
[Elon 75% / Northern Illinois 25%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Elon 60% / Northern Illinois 40%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -12 and has held steady at -12.5 despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating no significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% EV on Elon spread; implied probability undervalues the 60% cover rate from simulations, with contextual factors like home advantage adding edge without public overreaction.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Elon | 78.0% |
| Win % for Northern Illinois | 22.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Elon | 60.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 142.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [2.5, 22.0] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Elon, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators from stable line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as metrics confirm value without need for a fade. Northern Illinois’s poor road record (0-3 ATS in last three) and Elon’s defensive rebounding edge (top-150 nationally) support the under as the game projects low-possession. Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both offenses struggling against similar defenses in recent outings.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Elon] — highest mathematical probability backed by simulation win rate and EV alignment.

Highlights unavailable.